Transurban Group

OTCPK:TRAU.F Stock Report

Market Cap: US$25.5b

Transurban Group Valuation

Is TRAU.F undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

0/6

Valuation Score 0/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of TRAU.F when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Discounted Cash Flow
Simply Wall St
US$7.15
Fair Value
21.0% overvalued intrinsic discount
13
Number of Analysts

Below Fair Value: TRAU.F ($8.65) is trading above our estimate of fair value ($7.15)

Significantly Below Fair Value: TRAU.F is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for TRAU.F?

Key metric: As TRAU.F is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for TRAU.F. This is calculated by dividing TRAU.F's market cap by their current earnings.
What is TRAU.F's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio124.7x
EarningsAU$326.00m
Market CapAU$40.66b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does TRAU.F's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for TRAU.F vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average30.1x
DIDI.Y DiDi Global
24.4x35.3%US$23.2b
LUV Southwest Airlines
40x25.5%US$18.6b
XPO XPO
44.6x18.7%US$17.1b
UAL United Airlines Holdings
11.4x8.1%US$35.8b
TRAU.F Transurban Group
124.7x23.5%US$40.7b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: TRAU.F is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (124.7x) compared to the peer average (22.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does TRAU.F's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Global Infrastructure Industry?

4 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
TRAU.F 124.7xIndustry Avg. 14.6xNo. of Companies35PE01020304050+
4 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: TRAU.F is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (124.7x) compared to the Global Infrastructure industry average (14.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is TRAU.F's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

TRAU.F PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio124.7x
Fair PE Ration/a

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate TRAU.F's Price-To-Earnings Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst TRAU.F forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$8.65
US$8.33
-3.7%
4.7%US$9.27US$7.73n/a13
Feb ’26US$8.59
US$8.26
-3.9%
4.9%US$9.17US$7.65n/a13
Jan ’26US$8.11
US$8.44
+4.1%
4.9%US$9.40US$7.84n/a13
Dec ’25US$8.86
US$8.60
-2.9%
4.6%US$9.46US$7.99n/a13
Nov ’25US$8.99
US$8.84
-1.6%
4.6%US$9.72US$8.22n/a13
Oct ’25US$8.78
US$8.83
+0.7%
4.5%US$9.75US$8.28n/a14
Sep ’25n/a
US$8.56
0%
7.6%US$9.60US$6.60n/a15
Aug ’25US$8.54
US$8.66
+1.3%
8.7%US$10.20US$6.60n/a15
Jul ’25US$8.65
US$8.75
+1.1%
9.1%US$10.24US$6.63n/a15
Jun ’25US$8.14
US$8.75
+7.5%
9.1%US$10.24US$6.63n/a15
May ’25US$7.89
US$8.53
+8.1%
9.0%US$9.95US$6.44n/a15
Apr ’25US$8.53
US$8.70
+1.9%
9.0%US$10.18US$6.54n/a15
Mar ’25US$8.73
US$8.70
-0.4%
9.0%US$10.18US$6.54n/a15
Feb ’25US$8.90
US$8.94
+0.5%
6.3%US$10.45US$8.22US$8.5914
Jan ’25US$9.56
US$8.85
-7.4%
6.3%US$10.41US$8.11US$8.1114
Dec ’24US$8.69
US$8.68
-0.2%
6.4%US$10.14US$7.89US$8.8614
Nov ’24US$7.48
US$8.68
+16.0%
6.4%US$10.14US$7.89US$8.9914
Oct ’24US$8.10
US$9.13
+12.8%
6.4%US$10.20US$8.02US$8.7814
Sep ’24US$8.78
US$9.06
+3.2%
7.1%US$10.18US$8.01n/a15
Aug ’24US$9.42
US$9.81
+4.2%
8.3%US$11.07US$8.54US$8.5415
Jul ’24US$9.42
US$9.57
+1.6%
8.1%US$10.74US$8.29US$8.6515
Jun ’24US$9.47
US$9.57
+1.0%
8.1%US$10.74US$8.29US$8.1415
May ’24US$9.93
US$9.57
-3.7%
8.1%US$10.74US$8.29US$7.8915
Apr ’24US$9.40
US$9.49
+1.0%
7.6%US$10.73US$8.25US$8.5315
Mar ’24US$9.59
US$9.79
+2.1%
7.1%US$11.07US$8.51US$8.7317
Feb ’24US$9.93
US$9.88
-0.5%
7.7%US$11.20US$8.56US$8.9017
Analyst Price Target
Consensus Narrative from 13 Analysts
US$8.75
Fair Value
1.2% undervalued intrinsic discount
13
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2025/02/08 22:30
End of Day Share Price 2025/02/06 00:00
Earnings2024/06/30
Annual Earnings2024/06/30

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Transurban Group is covered by 36 analysts. 9 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Russell WrightAPP Securities Pty Ltd.
Matthew RyanBarrenjoey Markets Pty Limited
Benjamin BrayshawBarrenjoey Markets Pty Limited