ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc.'s (NYSE:ZTO) Stock Is Going Strong: Is the Market Following Fundamentals?

Most readers would already be aware that ZTO Express (Cayman)'s (NYSE:ZTO) stock increased significantly by 15% over the past month. Since the market usually pay for a company’s long-term fundamentals, we decided to study the company’s key performance indicators to see if they could be influencing the market. In this article, we decided to focus on ZTO Express (Cayman)'s ROE.

ROE or return on equity is a useful tool to assess how effectively a company can generate returns on the investment it received from its shareholders. In simpler terms, it measures the profitability of a company in relation to shareholder's equity.

Check out our latest analysis for ZTO Express (Cayman)

How To Calculate Return On Equity?

Return on equity can be calculated by using the formula:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for ZTO Express (Cayman) is:

14% = CN¥8.6b ÷ CN¥61b (Based on the trailing twelve months to June 2024).

The 'return' is the income the business earned over the last year. So, this means that for every $1 of its shareholder's investments, the company generates a profit of $0.14.

Why Is ROE Important For Earnings Growth?

So far, we've learned that ROE is a measure of a company's profitability. Depending on how much of these profits the company reinvests or "retains", and how effectively it does so, we are then able to assess a company’s earnings growth potential. Assuming all else is equal, companies that have both a higher return on equity and higher profit retention are usually the ones that have a higher growth rate when compared to companies that don't have the same features.

A Side By Side comparison of ZTO Express (Cayman)'s Earnings Growth And 14% ROE

To start with, ZTO Express (Cayman)'s ROE looks acceptable. Further, the company's ROE is similar to the industry average of 14%. This certainly adds some context to ZTO Express (Cayman)'s moderate 15% net income growth seen over the past five years.

We then compared ZTO Express (Cayman)'s net income growth with the industry and we're pleased to see that the company's growth figure is higher when compared with the industry which has a growth rate of 12% in the same 5-year period.

Earnings growth is an important metric to consider when valuing a stock. It’s important for an investor to know whether the market has priced in the company's expected earnings growth (or decline). By doing so, they will have an idea if the stock is headed into clear blue waters or if swampy waters await. Has the market priced in the future outlook for ZTO? You can find out in our latest intrinsic value infographic research report.

Is ZTO Express (Cayman) Making Efficient Use Of Its Profits?

ZTO Express (Cayman) has a three-year median payout ratio of 42%, which implies that it retains the remaining 58% of its profits. This suggests that its dividend is well covered, and given the decent growth seen by the company, it looks like management is reinvesting its earnings efficiently.

Additionally, ZTO Express (Cayman) has paid dividends over a period of six years which means that the company is pretty serious about sharing its profits with shareholders. Based on the latest analysts' estimates, we found that the company's future payout ratio over the next three years is expected to hold steady at 43%. Accordingly, forecasts suggest that ZTO Express (Cayman)'s future ROE will be 15% which is again, similar to the current ROE.

Summary

Overall, we are quite pleased with ZTO Express (Cayman)'s performance. Specifically, we like that the company is reinvesting a huge chunk of its profits at a high rate of return. This of course has caused the company to see substantial growth in its earnings. The latest industry analyst forecasts show that the company is expected to maintain its current growth rate. To know more about the company's future earnings growth forecasts take a look at this free report on analyst forecasts for the company to find out more.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.