United Parcel Service, Inc.

NYSE:UPS Stock Report

Market Cap: US$107.3b

United Parcel Service Valuation

Is UPS undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of UPS when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: UPS ($125.68) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($168.15)

Significantly Below Fair Value: UPS is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for UPS?

Key metric: As UPS is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for UPS. This is calculated by dividing UPS's market cap by their current earnings.
What is UPS's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio18.9x
EarningsUS$5.67b
Market CapUS$107.25b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does UPS's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for UPS vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average21.8x
FDX FedEx
17.1x13.2%US$66.4b
ZTO ZTO Express (Cayman)
13.5x12.3%US$15.9b
CHRW C.H. Robinson Worldwide
35.5x16.9%US$12.3b
EXPD Expeditors International of Washington
21.3x2.4%US$15.6b
UPS United Parcel Service
18.9x13.4%US$107.3b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: UPS is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (18.9x) compared to the peer average (21.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does UPS's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Global Logistics Industry?

2 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
UPS 18.9xIndustry Avg. 16.8xNo. of Companies33PE01224364860+
2 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: UPS is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (18.9x) compared to the Global Logistics industry average (16.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is UPS's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

UPS PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio18.9x
Fair PE Ratio24.9x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: UPS is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (18.9x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (24.9x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst UPS forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$125.68
US$149.01
+18.6%
11.8%US$185.00US$100.00n/a30
Dec ’25US$135.72
US$149.25
+10.0%
11.7%US$185.00US$100.00n/a29
Nov ’25US$134.05
US$149.28
+11.4%
11.8%US$185.00US$100.00n/a29
Oct ’25US$133.27
US$144.64
+8.5%
13.0%US$190.00US$100.00n/a28
Sep ’25US$128.55
US$145.86
+13.5%
13.4%US$190.00US$100.00n/a29
Aug ’25US$130.58
US$147.73
+13.1%
14.2%US$190.00US$100.00n/a29
Jul ’25US$135.95
US$161.84
+19.0%
12.5%US$205.00US$100.00n/a29
Jun ’25US$138.93
US$162.48
+17.0%
12.5%US$205.00US$100.00n/a28
May ’25US$145.92
US$162.95
+11.7%
12.1%US$205.00US$100.00n/a30
Apr ’25US$147.62
US$159.56
+8.1%
12.9%US$210.00US$100.00n/a29
Mar ’25US$148.06
US$160.34
+8.3%
13.1%US$210.00US$95.00n/a29
Feb ’25US$142.41
US$161.37
+13.3%
14.0%US$215.00US$95.00n/a30
Jan ’25US$157.23
US$166.10
+5.6%
14.3%US$220.00US$100.00n/a30
Dec ’24US$154.91
US$165.57
+6.9%
14.4%US$220.00US$100.00US$135.7230
Nov ’24US$139.80
US$166.77
+19.3%
14.4%US$220.00US$100.00US$134.0530
Oct ’24US$155.87
US$184.42
+18.3%
12.4%US$230.00US$100.00US$133.2729
Sep ’24US$168.00
US$189.93
+13.1%
11.7%US$230.00US$100.00US$128.5530
Aug ’24US$185.50
US$190.38
+2.6%
12.3%US$230.00US$100.00US$130.5829
Jul ’24US$179.25
US$189.90
+5.9%
12.0%US$230.00US$100.00US$135.9530
Jun ’24US$167.83
US$191.10
+13.9%
11.7%US$230.00US$100.00US$138.9329
May ’24US$182.20
US$189.68
+4.1%
11.4%US$225.00US$100.00US$145.9228
Apr ’24US$193.99
US$191.97
-1.0%
11.8%US$225.00US$100.00US$147.6230
Mar ’24US$183.08
US$191.70
+4.7%
11.8%US$227.00US$100.00US$148.0630
Feb ’24US$184.98
US$191.70
+3.6%
11.8%US$227.00US$100.00US$142.4130
Jan ’24US$173.84
US$190.52
+9.6%
13.1%US$251.00US$100.00US$157.2331
Dec ’23US$190.19
US$189.55
-0.3%
13.1%US$251.00US$100.00US$154.9131

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/22 01:44
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/20 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

United Parcel Service, Inc. is covered by 56 analysts. 26 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Will ChienAccountability Research Corporation
Jeffrey KauffmanAegis Capital Corporation
John EadeArgus Research Company