Canadian National Railway Company

NYSE:CNI Stock Report

Market Cap: US$64.5b

Canadian National Railway Valuation

Is CNI undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of CNI when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: CNI ($102.53) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($110.38)

Significantly Below Fair Value: CNI is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for CNI?

Key metric: As CNI is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for CNI. This is calculated by dividing CNI's market cap by their current earnings.
What is CNI's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio17.2x
EarningsCA$5.43b
Market CapCA$93.18b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does CNI's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for CNI vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average22.8x
CSX CSX
17x5.7%US$62.4b
NSC Norfolk Southern
22.1x12.5%US$53.4b
UNP Union Pacific
21.1x6.9%US$140.3b
ODFL Old Dominion Freight Line
31x8.6%US$38.6b
CNI Canadian National Railway
17.2x4.3%US$93.2b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: CNI is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17.2x) compared to the peer average (22.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does CNI's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Transportation Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies available in this PE range
CNI 17.2xIndustry Avg. 30.2xNo. of Companies5PE01224364860+
0 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: CNI is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17.2x) compared to the US Transportation industry average (30.2x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is CNI's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

CNI PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio17.2x
Fair PE Ratio19.9x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: CNI is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17.2x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (19.9x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst CNI forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$102.53
US$120.68
+17.7%
5.8%US$139.17US$110.64n/a21
Dec ’25US$111.69
US$124.30
+11.3%
5.8%US$143.71US$114.25n/a21
Nov ’25US$108.21
US$124.30
+14.9%
5.8%US$143.71US$114.25n/a21
Oct ’25US$117.12
US$129.87
+10.9%
6.7%US$155.29US$116.84n/a21
Sep ’25US$117.82
US$128.99
+9.5%
6.2%US$151.37US$113.89n/a21
Aug ’25US$113.25
US$128.99
+13.9%
6.2%US$151.37US$113.89n/a21
Jul ’25US$116.69
US$133.79
+14.7%
6.2%US$153.09US$115.18n/a22
Jun ’25US$127.33
US$134.06
+5.3%
6.3%US$153.12US$115.21n/a22
May ’25US$121.01
US$133.11
+10.0%
6.7%US$152.53US$114.76n/a22
Apr ’25US$131.52
US$131.86
+0.3%
7.5%US$154.70US$114.19n/a22
Mar ’25US$130.31
US$129.79
-0.4%
6.7%US$154.75US$114.22n/a22
Feb ’25US$126.92
US$130.77
+3.0%
6.9%US$156.73US$115.68n/a22
Jan ’25US$125.63
US$124.45
-0.9%
6.2%US$145.87US$113.70US$101.5122
Dec ’24US$118.72
US$120.34
+1.4%
6.1%US$141.33US$110.16US$111.6922
Nov ’24US$106.70
US$120.24
+12.7%
6.1%US$140.99US$109.18US$108.2122
Oct ’24US$108.33
US$125.87
+16.2%
6.4%US$147.32US$111.79US$117.1222
Sep ’24US$113.17
US$126.58
+11.9%
6.5%US$147.80US$112.15US$117.8221
Aug ’24US$119.49
US$128.89
+7.9%
6.8%US$150.92US$114.52US$113.2521
Jul ’24US$121.07
US$132.71
+9.6%
6.9%US$151.92US$114.70US$116.6921
Jun ’24US$115.06
US$129.19
+12.3%
7.2%US$147.32US$111.23US$127.3321
May ’24US$119.83
US$127.06
+6.0%
6.8%US$140.73US$110.68US$121.0120
Apr ’24US$117.97
US$123.67
+4.8%
7.2%US$138.34US$108.49US$131.5220
Mar ’24US$115.63
US$127.66
+10.4%
7.4%US$142.60US$108.82US$130.3120
Feb ’24US$119.42
US$127.66
+6.9%
7.4%US$142.60US$108.82US$126.9220
Jan ’24US$118.88
US$125.32
+5.4%
7.0%US$139.67US$106.59US$125.6319

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2025/01/05 03:23
End of Day Share Price 2025/01/03 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Canadian National Railway Company is covered by 55 analysts. 28 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Will ChienAccountability Research Corporation
John EadeArgus Research Company
Christopher MurrayATB Capital Markets