Frontier (ULCC): Evaluating the Airline’s Valuation Following Its Recent CEO Transition

Frontier Group Holdings (ULCC) is back on investors radar after naming President James G. Dempsey as Interim CEO, stepping in for longtime chief Barry L. Biffle, who shifts to an advisory role.

See our latest analysis for Frontier Group Holdings.

The leadership shake up lands as the share price sits at $5.06, with a strong 1 month share price return of 33.51 percent but a much weaker 1 year total shareholder return of negative 28.93 percent. This suggests short term momentum is building even as longer term holders remain underwater.

If this CEO transition has you looking beyond airlines, it could be a smart moment to scan auto manufacturers for other cyclical names where sentiment and strategy are also shifting.

With shares still down sharply over one and three years but trading near analyst targets after a recent rebound, is Frontier quietly undervalued after its CEO shake up, or is the market already pricing in its next phase of growth?

Most Popular Narrative Narrative: 10.7% Undervalued

With Frontier Group Holdings closing at $5.06 versus a narrative fair value of $5.67, the most followed view sees modest upside still on the table.

The expansion of premium product offerings (e.g., first-class seating, UpFront Plus), increased loyalty cardholder engagement, and enhanced ancillary service monetization are driving higher non-fare revenue per passenger, supporting both top-line growth and margin expansion over the medium term.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious how a low fare carrier can justify a higher future earnings multiple without chasing headline ticket prices? The answer hinges on one powerful shift in where revenue and margins really come from.

Result: Fair Value of $5.67 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, persistent domestic oversupply and Frontier's heavy reliance on price sensitive leisure travelers could quickly pressure yields, margins, and that 2028 earnings trajectory.

Find out about the key risks to this Frontier Group Holdings narrative.

Build Your Own Frontier Group Holdings Narrative

If this outlook does not quite fit your view, take a few minutes to dig into the numbers yourself and craft a personalized perspective, Do it your way

A good starting point is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards investors are optimistic about regarding Frontier Group Holdings.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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