See our latest analysis for Saia.
Saia’s share price has faced heavy turbulence in 2024, with a year-to-date share price return of -36.2% and a 1-year total shareholder return of -40.4%, reflecting investor concerns despite the company’s solid long-term growth. Its 5-year total shareholder return remains a robust 78.5%. Momentum for the stock has cooled lately, even as the freight industry continues to adapt.
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With shares trading below analyst targets and solid earnings growth in recent years, the key question emerges: Is Saia’s recent dip a buying opportunity, or is the market already factoring in the company’s potential for future gains?
Most Popular Narrative: 15.7% Undervalued
According to the most popular narrative, Saia’s estimated fair value stands well above its last close, hinting at nearly double-digit upside if projections are realized. This substantial gap highlights crucial assumptions about revenue and margin growth.
The ongoing expansion and maturation of Saia's national terminal network, combined with network densification, is starting to unlock cost efficiencies and higher shipment volumes in new and legacy markets. This positions the company for top-line revenue growth and improved operating margins as these facilities move toward scale.
Want to see why analysts believe this expansion will pay off? The real story behind the fair value rests on bold forecasts for future revenue, profit margins, and scaling up to industry-best levels. Curious about which assumptions drive this bullish price target? The answers may surprise you.
Result: Fair Value of $337.25 (UNDERVALUED)
Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.
However, ongoing weak shipment volumes or higher-than-expected costs could quickly reverse these optimistic forecasts, which may keep investors cautious despite the longer-term story.
Find out about the key risks to this Saia narrative.
Build Your Own Saia Narrative
If you’re ready to dig deeper or want to chart your own course, you can start building your custom narrative using our data in just a few minutes. Do it your way
A good starting point is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards investors are optimistic about regarding Saia.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
Valuation is complex, but we're here to simplify it.
Discover if Saia might be undervalued or overvalued with our detailed analysis, featuring fair value estimates, potential risks, dividends, insider trades, and its financial condition.
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