Analysts Are Updating Their Blade Air Mobility, Inc. (NASDAQ:BLDE) Estimates After Its First-Quarter Results

Blade Air Mobility, Inc. (NASDAQ:BLDE) defied analyst predictions to release its first-quarter results, which were ahead of market expectations. Results overall were solid, with revenues arriving 5.0% better than analyst forecasts at US$52m. Higher revenues also resulted in substantially lower statutory losses which, at US$0.06 per share, were 5.0% smaller than the analysts expected. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

View our latest analysis for Blade Air Mobility

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Blade Air Mobility's five analysts is for revenues of US$246.9m in 2024. This reflects a modest 6.7% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Losses are predicted to fall substantially, shrinking 73% to US$0.17. Before this earnings announcement, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$246.3m and losses of US$0.28 per share in 2024. Although the revenue estimates have not really changed Blade Air Mobility'sfuture looks a little different to the past, with a very promising decrease in the loss per share forecasts in particular.

There's been no major changes to the consensus price target of US$7.30, suggesting that reduced loss estimates are not enough to have a long-term positive impact on the stock's valuation. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on Blade Air Mobility, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$13.50 and the most bearish at US$5.00 per share. As you can see the range of estimates is wide, with the lowest valuation coming in at less than half the most bullish estimate, suggesting there are some strongly diverging views on how analysts think this business will perform. As a result it might not be a great idea to make decisions based on the consensus price target, which is after all just an average of this wide range of estimates.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Blade Air Mobility's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2024 expected to display 9.0% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 57% over the past three years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 6.6% per year. Even after the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Blade Air Mobility is also expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts reconfirmed their loss per share estimates for next year. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at US$7.30, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Blade Air Mobility going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 4 warning signs for Blade Air Mobility that you need to be mindful of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.