AST SpaceMobile (ASTS) Is Up 8.9% After $175 Million Saudi Satellite Deal With STC Group – What's Changed

• STC Group and AST SpaceMobile announced a 10-year commercial agreement to bring direct-to-device satellite mobile connectivity across Saudi Arabia and key regional markets, with STC committing a US$175 million prepayment and significant long-term revenue commitments.
• This partnership marks AST SpaceMobile's first large-scale entry into the Middle East, combining satellite and terrestrial infrastructure to expand mobile broadband coverage for millions, including underserved communities.
• We'll explore how the collaboration's focus on eliminating connectivity gaps and enabling seamless 4G and 5G access reframes AST SpaceMobile’s investment narrative.

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What Is AST SpaceMobile's Investment Narrative?

The big picture for AST SpaceMobile shareholders hinges on whether the company can turn its ambitious vision, delivering universal, satellite-powered mobile connectivity, into material, recurring revenue. The recent 10-year deal with STC Group is a clear step forward, providing a sizable US$175 million prepayment, significant long-term revenue commitments, and a foothold in the Middle East market. This could accelerate near-term catalysts, such as commercial service launches and expanded partnerships, while raising expectations of meaningful sales beyond just pilot projects. However, scale-up risk still looms large: AST SpaceMobile remains unprofitable with a history of increasing losses, ongoing share dilution, and a relatively new management team. Execution on regulatory approvals, technological readiness, and capacity to deploy new satellites will shape the pathway to profitability. The STC agreement meaningfully reduces customer concentration risks, but the pressure now shifts to rapid delivery and operational milestones in a complex environment. Recent share price volatility following the announcement shows the market is weighing both the upsides and persistent execution challenges.

But not all risks, especially those related to scaling and early execution, should be underestimated. AST SpaceMobile's shares have been on the rise but are still potentially undervalued. Find out how large the opportunity might be.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Sixty-five private investors in the Simply Wall St Community put AST SpaceMobile’s fair value anywhere from US$0.07 to over US$198 per share. While optimism is high after large contract wins, many highlight ongoing losses and execution risks as key concerns weighing on longer-term prospects. Explore these contrasting viewpoints from real investors and see how your analysis lines up.

Explore 65 other fair value estimates on AST SpaceMobile - why the stock might be worth over 2x more than the current price!

Build Your Own AST SpaceMobile Narrative

Disagree with this assessment? Create your own narrative in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your AST SpaceMobile research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 4 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free AST SpaceMobile research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate AST SpaceMobile's overall financial health at a glance.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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