Revenues Not Telling The Story For Ciena Corporation (NYSE:CIEN) After Shares Rise 36%

Ciena Corporation (NYSE:CIEN) shareholders are no doubt pleased to see that the share price has bounced 36% in the last month, although it is still struggling to make up recently lost ground. Looking back a bit further, it's encouraging to see the stock is up 49% in the last year.

Following the firm bounce in price, you could be forgiven for thinking Ciena is a stock not worth researching with a price-to-sales ratios (or "P/S") of 2.6x, considering almost half the companies in the United States' Communications industry have P/S ratios below 1.5x. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the elevated P/S.

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See our latest analysis for Ciena

How Ciena Has Been Performing

While the industry has experienced revenue growth lately, Ciena's revenue has gone into reverse gear, which is not great. Perhaps the market is expecting the poor revenue to reverse, justifying it's current high P/S.. However, if this isn't the case, investors might get caught out paying too much for the stock.

If you'd like to see what analysts are forecasting going forward, you should check out our free report on Ciena.

Do Revenue Forecasts Match The High P/S Ratio?

Ciena's P/S ratio would be typical for a company that's expected to deliver solid growth, and importantly, perform better than the industry.

In reviewing the last year of financials, we were disheartened to see the company's revenues fell to the tune of 7.0%. That put a dampener on the good run it was having over the longer-term as its three-year revenue growth is still a noteworthy 9.2% in total. Although it's been a bumpy ride, it's still fair to say the revenue growth recently has been mostly respectable for the company.

Looking ahead now, revenue is anticipated to climb by 12% during the coming year according to the analysts following the company. Meanwhile, the rest of the industry is forecast to expand by 10.0%, which is not materially different.

In light of this, it's curious that Ciena's P/S sits above the majority of other companies. Apparently many investors in the company are more bullish than analysts indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock right now. These shareholders may be setting themselves up for disappointment if the P/S falls to levels more in line with the growth outlook.

The Final Word

The large bounce in Ciena's shares has lifted the company's P/S handsomely. Using the price-to-sales ratio alone to determine if you should sell your stock isn't sensible, however it can be a practical guide to the company's future prospects.

Analysts are forecasting Ciena's revenues to only grow on par with the rest of the industry, which has lead to the high P/S ratio being unexpected. Right now we are uncomfortable with the relatively high share price as the predicted future revenues aren't likely to support such positive sentiment for long. Unless the company can jump ahead of the rest of the industry in the short-term, it'll be a challenge to maintain the share price at current levels.

And what about other risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for Ciena you should know about.

Of course, profitable companies with a history of great earnings growth are generally safer bets. So you may wish to see this free collection of other companies that have reasonable P/E ratios and have grown earnings strongly.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.