Downgrade: Here's How Analysts See TransAct Technologies Incorporated (NASDAQ:TACT) Performing In The Near Term

Market forces rained on the parade of TransAct Technologies Incorporated (NASDAQ:TACT) shareholders today, when the analysts downgraded their forecasts for this year. Revenue and earnings per share (EPS) forecasts were both revised downwards, with the analysts seeing grey clouds on the horizon.

Following the downgrade, the current consensus from TransAct Technologies' two analysts is for revenues of US$36m in 2021 which - if met - would reflect a major 25% increase on its sales over the past 12 months. Per-share losses are expected to see a sharp uptick, reaching US$0.97. However, before this estimates update, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$41m and US$0.71 per share in losses. Ergo, there's been a clear change in sentiment, with the analysts administering a notable cut to this year's revenue estimates, while at the same time increasing their loss per share forecasts.

See our latest analysis for TransAct Technologies

earnings-and-revenue-growth
NasdaqGM:TACT Earnings and Revenue Growth May 11th 2021

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. For example, we noticed that TransAct Technologies' rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with revenues forecast to exhibit 35% growth to the end of 2021 on an annualised basis. That is well above its historical decline of 11% a year over the past five years. Compare this against analyst estimates for the broader industry, which suggest that (in aggregate) industry revenues are expected to grow 4.6% annually. Not only are TransAct Technologies' revenues expected to improve, it seems that the analysts are also expecting it to grow faster than the wider industry.

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The Bottom Line

The most important thing to note from this downgrade is that the consensus increased its forecast losses this year, suggesting all may not be well at TransAct Technologies. While analysts did downgrade their revenue estimates, these forecasts still imply revenues will perform better than the wider market. We wouldn't be surprised to find shareholders feeling a bit shell-shocked, after these downgrades. It looks like analysts have become a lot more bearish on TransAct Technologies, and their negativity could be grounds for caution.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have analyst estimates for TransAct Technologies going out as far as 2023, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Of course, seeing company management invest large sums of money in a stock can be just as useful as knowing whether analysts are downgrading their estimates. So you may also wish to search this free list of stocks that insiders are buying.

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Valuation is complex, but we're here to simplify it.

Discover if TransAct Technologies might be undervalued or overvalued with our detailed analysis, featuring fair value estimates, potential risks, dividends, insider trades, and its financial condition.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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About NasdaqGM:TACT

TransAct Technologies

Designs, develops, and markets transaction-based and specialty printers and terminals in the United States and internationally.

Excellent balance sheet and good value.

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MPAA often has inventory and core-related timing issues. While this quarter’s problems may ease, similar issues have recurred historically and can persist for several quarters. It's not a one-off, it's a structural part of their business. Core returns are simply estimates: How many customers will actually return the original part; how quickly they'll do so; how many are useable; what they're worth, etc. MPAA predicts X sales in a quarter and Y core returns and its reserves, inventory values, etc. are based on that. If they expect a 90% core return rate and only 80% come back it doesn't change cash but they have to write down inventory and increase cost of goods sold which impacts EPS. They've also cited inventory buildup at key customers multiple times in the past. The assumption the latest backlog will all shift into future quarters this year with no impact on pricing, etc. seems more like wishful thinking. Retailer X was slated to buy $10m in parts this quarter but finds they have a lot more inventory on hand than they anticipated so they pushed the order. Realistically there are likely to be SKU cuts, reduction in safety stock on others, etc. Assuming that all $10m will come in this year plus the regular replenishment seems pretty unrealistic. MPAA also has a shaky track record when it comes to new lines and the supposed impact on business. If you look at the EV testing solutions hype back around 2020 that was supposed to diversify them beyond traditional reman and be a higher margin business that would grow with EV adoption. But it has never turned into a material contributor. The debt reduction and stock buy backs are meaningful but IMHO this narrative takes a very optimistic view of things.

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