Super Micro Computer, Inc. Just Missed EPS By 13%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

Super Micro Computer, Inc. (NASDAQ:SMCI) missed earnings with its latest quarterly results, disappointing overly-optimistic forecasters. Super Micro Computer missed earnings this time around, with US$4.6b revenue coming in 9.8% below what the analysts had modelled. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.17 also fell short of expectations by 13%. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

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Following the latest results, Super Micro Computer's 14 analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$30.0b in 2026. This would be a substantial 39% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to bounce 28% to US$2.47. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$33.4b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$3.32 in 2026. It looks like sentiment has declined substantially in the aftermath of these results, with a real cut to revenue estimates and a pretty serious reduction to earnings per share numbers as well.

See our latest analysis for Super Micro Computer

The consensus price target fell 10% to US$42.69, with the weaker earnings outlook clearly leading valuation estimates. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. The most optimistic Super Micro Computer analyst has a price target of US$93.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$15.00. So we wouldn't be assigning too much credibility to analyst price targets in this case, because there are clearly some widely different views on what kind of performance this business can generate. With this in mind, we wouldn't rely too heavily the consensus price target, as it is just an average and analysts clearly have some deeply divergent views on the business.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that Super Micro Computer's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 30% annualised growth rate until the end of 2026 being well below the historical 42% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 5.6% annually. Even after the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that Super Micro Computer is also expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Super Micro Computer. Regrettably, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, but the latest forecasts still imply the business will grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target fell measurably, with the analysts seemingly not reassured by the latest results, leading to a lower estimate of Super Micro Computer's future valuation.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Super Micro Computer. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Super Micro Computer going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

You still need to take note of risks, for example - Super Micro Computer has 4 warning signs (and 1 which doesn't sit too well with us) we think you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.