Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting For One Stop Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ:OSS) After Its Second-Quarter Results

Last week, you might have seen that One Stop Systems, Inc. (NASDAQ:OSS) released its quarterly result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 9.3% to US$1.96 in the past week. It was a pretty bad result overall; while revenues were in line with expectations at US$13m, statutory losses exploded to US$0.11 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

View our latest analysis for One Stop Systems

earnings-and-revenue-growth
NasdaqCM:OSS Earnings and Revenue Growth August 11th 2024

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for One Stop Systems from three analysts is for revenues of US$56.4m in 2024. If met, it would imply a satisfactory 6.9% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. The loss per share is expected to greatly reduce in the near future, narrowing 46% to US$0.19. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$57.6m and US$0.14 per share in losses. While this year's revenue estimates dropped there was also a regrettable increase in loss per share expectations, suggesting the consensus has a bit of a mixed view on the stock.

There was no major change to the consensus price target of US$3.83, signalling that the business is performing roughly in line with expectations, despite lower earnings per share forecasts. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. There are some variant perceptions on One Stop Systems, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$5.50 and the most bearish at US$2.50 per share. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. It's clear from the latest estimates that One Stop Systems' rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 14% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2024 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 3.8% p.a. over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 7.6% annually. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect One Stop Systems to grow faster than the wider industry.

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The Bottom Line

The most important thing to note is the forecast of increased losses next year, suggesting all may not be well at One Stop Systems. They also downgraded One Stop Systems' revenue estimates, but industry data suggests that it is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for One Stop Systems going out to 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Before you take the next step you should know about the 4 warning signs for One Stop Systems that we have uncovered.

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Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

About NasdaqCM:OSS

One Stop Systems

Designs, manufactures, and markets rugged high-performance compute, high speed switch fabrics, and storage systems for edge applications of artificial intelligence and machine learning, sensor processing, sensor fusion, and autonomy in the United States and internationally.

Flawless balance sheet with low risk.

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MPAA often has inventory and core-related timing issues. While this quarter’s problems may ease, similar issues have recurred historically and can persist for several quarters. It's not a one-off, it's a structural part of their business. Core returns are simply estimates: How many customers will actually return the original part; how quickly they'll do so; how many are useable; what they're worth, etc. MPAA predicts X sales in a quarter and Y core returns and its reserves, inventory values, etc. are based on that. If they expect a 90% core return rate and only 80% come back it doesn't change cash but they have to write down inventory and increase cost of goods sold which impacts EPS. They've also cited inventory buildup at key customers multiple times in the past. The assumption the latest backlog will all shift into future quarters this year with no impact on pricing, etc. seems more like wishful thinking. Retailer X was slated to buy $10m in parts this quarter but finds they have a lot more inventory on hand than they anticipated so they pushed the order. Realistically there are likely to be SKU cuts, reduction in safety stock on others, etc. Assuming that all $10m will come in this year plus the regular replenishment seems pretty unrealistic. MPAA also has a shaky track record when it comes to new lines and the supposed impact on business. If you look at the EV testing solutions hype back around 2020 that was supposed to diversify them beyond traditional reman and be a higher margin business that would grow with EV adoption. But it has never turned into a material contributor. The debt reduction and stock buy backs are meaningful but IMHO this narrative takes a very optimistic view of things.

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