How to invest when commodity prices get messy ⚖️

Commodity prices are off to a flying start in 2026. Some are benefitting from heightened uncertainty, while others are jumping on the AI bandwagon.

The changing world order appears to have as many implications for the prices of natural resources as it does for equities, bonds, and currencies. This week we are taking a look at the outlook for precious metals, industrial metals, and energy markets.

What Happened In Markets This Week

Here’s a quick summary of what’s been going on:

🏛️ Trump sues JPMorgan for $5B over 'debanking' (BBC)

• What happened: Trump filed a $5B lawsuit accusing JPMorgan of politically motivated account closures following the Capitol riot. The suit names Jamie Dimon and cites reputational damage. The complaint claims JPM blacklisted Trump-linked entities across private banking, retail, and political action accounts.
• How it impacts investors: The case could fuel regulatory and political scrutiny of how banks manage reputational risk and customer deplatforming. It adds legal overhang and PR risk for JPM.
• Next steps: Track real-time news sentiment on JPM and watch for shifts in financials sector momentum if this story escalates.

📺 Netflix’s ad business shows promise, but still early innings (CNBC)

• What happened: Netflix’s ad-supported tier now has 23 million monthly users, with ad-tier ARPU exceeding that of its cheapest ad-free plan.The company has expanded its ad partnerships and added new targeting features, but it still hasn’t disclosed total ad revenue or margin contribution.
• How it impacts investors: Ad-supported streaming could become a margin boost over time, but the lack of transparency makes it tough to size the opportunity. It's progress, but not a pivot yet.
• Next steps: Use our peer comparison tool (section 1.3) to see how Netflix stacks up against Disney, Roku, and YouTube on monetization metrics.

🎮 Ubisoft tanks 33% after canceling six games and closing studios ( BBC )

• What happened: Ubisoft scrapped six titles – including Prince of Persia – and shut two studios as it pivots toward fewer, bigger franchises and live-service models. The move is part of a broader reset amid rising costs, missed timelines, and growing pressure to turn blockbusters into billion-dollar recurring revenue streams.
• How it impacts investors: The drastic cuts show deeper struggles with cost, output, and hit creation. Investors punished the stock, questioning whether the pivot can deliver consistent returns.
• Next steps: Watch franchise performance like Assassin’s Creed on UBI’s revenue breakdowns.

📉 Intel slides despite beating earnings as AI euphoria fades ( CNBC )

• What happened: Intel beat Q4 expectations with US$16.3B in revenue and strong AI PC sales, but shares slipped after hours as guidance came in flat, data center revenue fell 7%, and the foundry unit posted a $2.1B loss. The company’s Core Ultra chips are gaining traction, but margins remain pressured by high costs and lagging performance in key segments.
• How it impacts investors: Margins are still well below historical levels, and execution risk remains high with heavy capex and tough competition from Nvidia and AMD. Investors are pricing in skepticism, not hype.
• Next steps: Add INTC to your watchlist and track margin trends on the earnings dashboard. Next quarter could be make or break.

🚙 Stellantis sheds as investors tire of the turnaround story (CNBC)

• What happened: Stellantis has dropped 43% from its post-merger high. Jeep sales are slowing, global expansion is underwhelming, and buybacks haven’t stopped the slide. Despite aggressive EV investments and decent free cash flow, investors aren’t seeing clear growth drivers or brand momentum.
• How it impacts investors: Despite decent financials, investor confidence is fading. The stock looks cheap, but sentiment is even cheaper, proof of execution is now the missing piece.
• Next steps: Check STLA’s valuation to see whether this move can be a new opportunity.

🌍 Commodity Outlook 2026: The ‘Dislocation’ Continues

Our 2026 Market Outlook newsletter mentioned all the polarization occurring in markets and economies. The commodity market is no different. While the current environment is acting as a tailwind for some commodities, it’s a headwind for others.

📉 Some of the relationships between assets that used to be fairly reliable are becoming dislocated too. As an example, the usually negative correlation between the real yields (yields minus inflation) and the gold price, hasn’t held since 2022.

Certain commodities are being regarded by governments and investors as strategic assets rather than raw materials.

Elsewhere, the relationship between global GDP growth and basic commodities like iron ore and oil, is being impacted by new secular trends (AI and electrification) and increases in supply.

Gold and Other Precious Metals ✨

Gold still the top pick

The gold price has now topped US$4,900, nearly double its price a year ago.

There are two distinct catalysts behind this move:

• Central banks are diversifying away from the US Dollar and "sanction-proofing" their reserves. Many investors are following suit.
• Geo-political uncertainty is prompting investors to allocate to safe haven assets. And while US debt continues to grow, the safe haven status of US treasuries is less certain than it was in the past.

According to a recent survey of fund managers, gold was the top pick for 2026. For contrarian investors that’s probably a sell signal.

Meanwhile the bulls point out that gold isn’t really ‘over-owned’ by central banks or investors:

• Despite ongoing gold purchases, gold still only represents ~8% of China’s foreign reserves. It also makes up less than 8% of Japan’s reserves, and about 15% of India’s.
• Institutional funds are estimated to currently allocate less than 2% to gold.

As long as the bullish catalysts remain valid, gold may well continue to rise. However it’s worth noting that in recent months, inflows to Gold ETFs have been a significant catalyst too. The following chart shows how ETF flows can also turn negative - so short term volatility really wouldn't be surprising.

Silver joins the party ⚡

In October, Silver broke a 13-year high at US$50/oz - and carried on toward $100. Silver has always been closely correlated to gold, but generally more volatile.

But there are also a few interesting dynamics unique to silver:

• Silver is a much smaller market compared to gold - so imbalances between supply and demand can cause large price swings.
• It’s an excellent electricity conductor which makes it a vital metal for some of the fastest growing industries including solar, EVs and semiconductors.
• Physical demand actually fell 4% in 2025 as rising silver prices eroded margins for end users. Investment and speculative demand replaced some of that industrial demand.
• Silver is widely produced as a by-product when other metals like copper and zinc are mined. So supply is more a function of the production levels of those metals, rather than the price of silver.
• The net effect has been a supply deficit over the last four years, though the deficit has fallen.

Historically the ratio between the price of gold and silver has ranged between 40 and 110. It touched 107 as recently as April 2025, and is now approaching the lower extreme at 45.

• This implies the price may be overextended.
• Higher zinc and copper prices could also lead to increased output - and higher silver supply.

Longer term, silver offers indirect exposure to key technology and energy industries.

Platinum Group Metals ( PGMs): Old Catalysts Revived 💎

The PGMs (a.k.a. P latinum and Palladium) are also riding the precious metal rally. Like silver, these are smaller markets and larger price swings are common.

The PGM market has another favorable catalyst. Petrol and diesel vehicles have been given a reprieve as EV targets are pushed further into the future (Europe) and EV subsidies are being removed (China and US).

• Platinum is used in catalytic converters to reduce emissions in diesel vehicles.
• Palladium is used to reduce emissions in gasoline (petrol) and hybrid vehicles.

🚗 Hybrid electric vehicles, which have become a popular choice, actually require more palladium than standard combustion engines!

The bottom line on precious metals

The rally in precious metals has attracted more speculative demand, while some physical demand has moved to the sidelines. That means sharp corrections are quite likely this year, despite some strong long-term fundamentals.

Industrial Metals: Copper, Iron Ore, etc.⚙️

The copper price, also at record highs, has traditionally been viewed as a leading indicator for global economic activity - hence the term ‘Dr. Copper’. However, this is another relationship that’s now being tested.

Copper is widely used in construction, manufacturing, technology and energy industries. Current demand growth is specifically concentrated in:

• The electrification of the global economy (EVs, energy generation and transmission)
• Datacenters for AI and general cloud computing.

Copper, like silver, is essential for all of these growing industries. In addition, these industries drive demand for aluminum, battery metals (lithium, nickel, cobalt, etc.) and rare earth minerals.

So, demand for these metals is closely linked to ‘the AI trade’, and the energy transition.

Demand from the broader global economy is lagging due to:

• China’s softer economy, particularly construction and infrastructure.
• High property prices in several economies are impacting the construction industry.
• The broader manufacturing industry is slowing.

The Global PMI (Purchasing Managers Index) is reflecting uncertainty, particularly about future demand. This is at least partially due to US tariffs.

Weak demand from the broader economy is bad news for iron ore prices. In addition, global iron ore supply and inventories are rising. Most analysts foresee a softer year for this commodity.

Is this an opportunity? The prices of most metals reflect optimism, while sentiment around iron ore is weak. If general manufacturing, infrastructure or construction show signs of recovery, iron-ore producers could see gains that aren’t reflected in their share prices.

Energy Commodities: Oil, Gas and Coal ⚡

Crude Oil: The "Dead Money" Trap?

Last week’s newsletter covered the Venezuela story and the fact that the oil market had largely disregarded it. To put it simply, there is already a surplus and any increase in supply from Venezuela will take years to materialize.

At the start of the year, the consensus for 2026 was a crude price in the $55 to $60 range. The bullish case has been undermined by non-OPEC supply (US, Guyana, Brazil), which is growing three times faster than global demand. JPMorgan even warned of a "bearish tail-risk" where oil could crash into the low-$30s if OPEC+ loses control of the floor.

The bullish case for the oil price is mostly centered on geopolitical risks, and potential supply disruptions. The oil price has already spiked briefly when a US strike on Iran appeared likely. Historically, most of these spikes have been short lived.

Unless the underlying story changes, midstream (storage and logistics) companies appear to be better positioned. The companies that own the tanks and pipelines are positioned to capture value from volatility and volume, regardless of the flat crude price.

Natural Gas and Coal

Europe faces a "storage squeeze" in natural gas. Falling prices have reduced the incentive to store gas, leaving the continent reliant on LNG shipments. This has already led to volatility, with prices jumping nearly 30% so far this year. While short term spikes are to be expected, alternative energy sources are keeping a lid on average demand.

Coal has re-emerged as part of the energy mix due to datacenter demand - and in particular to supplement wind and solar energy with reliable baseload power.

The dynamics facing natural gas and coal markets are also positive for integrated energy companies with exposure to more than one commodity and to storage, transport and processing, rather than extraction.

💡 The Insight: Invest in the Commodity or the Producer?

If you still see upside for the price of a commodity, you are faced with a decision: do you invest in the physical commodity (typically via an ETF) or the shares of a producer?

For commodities with higher volumes (like oil and iron-ore), owning shares of the producers has generally worked out for investors. But for the last 20 years or so, physical gold (or ETFs) has generally been a better bet than the gold miners. Operating costs for gold producers have simply risen faster than the gold price. The chart below shows that for US gold producers, earnings have only really taken off in the last two years.

And so despite the last few decades, the current environment appears to now favor the miners for a few reasons:

• Margins are expanding rapidly and management teams are far more disciplined than they have been in the past.
• Reserves are being depleted, which means the larger players are keen to make acquisitions.

This means smaller producers could offer big gains… but risk management is key. The prices of the underlying metals are prone to massive price swings. At the same time, speculation about acquisitions can lead to wildly overvalued share prices.

If you are looking for precious metal miners, you can start with this screener, and then narrow the list down with your own filters.

Key Events Next Week

Data releases this week are fairly minor, but there is a FOMC meeting, though no change is expected for Fed Fund’s Rate.

Monday

• 🇺🇸 Durable Goods Orders MoM
  • ▶️ Previous: -2.2%
  • ➡️ Why it matters: This leading indicator for manufacturing demand tracks business investment; a rebound is needed to show the broader economy remains strong.

Wednesday

• 🇨🇦 CA BoC Interest Rate Decision

  • ▶️ Previous: 2.25%
  • ➡️ Why it matters: The central bank's decision will directly impact borrowing costs and the Canadian dollar's valuation against peers.

• 🇺🇸 Fed Interest Rate Decision

  • ▶️ Forecast: 3.75%, Previous: 3.75%
  • ➡️ Why it matters : No change is expected but the Fed’s statement might shed light on the next move.

Thursday

• 🇯🇵 JP Consumer Confidence JAN
  • 📈 Forecast: 37.6, Previous: 37.2
  • ➡️ Why it matters: Improving sentiment supports the consumption recovery necessary for the Bank of Japan to justify further rate hikes.

Friday

• 🇪🇺 GDP Growth Rate YoY Flash Q4
  • ▶️ Previous: 1.4%
  • ➡️ Why it matters : This year-over-year metric confirms whether the Eurozone recovery is gaining structural traction.

It’s the biggest week of earnings season with four Mag 7 companies reporting, along with large caps in several sectors. The largest include:

• Microsoft
• Meta
• Apple
• Visa
• Exxon
• Tesla
• ASML Holding
• IBM
• RTX Corp
• Texas Instruments
• UnitedHealth

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com

Simply Wall St analyst Richard Bowman and Simply Wall St have no position in any of the companies mentioned. This article is general in nature. Any comments below from SWS employees are their opinions only, should not be taken as financial advice and may not represent the views of Simply Wall St. Unless otherwise advised, SWS employees providing commentary do not own a position in any company mentioned in the article or in their comments.We provide analysis based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.