Ondas Holdings (ONDS): How New Defense Partnerships and Leadership Moves Could Influence Valuation

Ondas Holdings (ONDS) just landed in the spotlight with two high-profile moves that could redefine its place in the drone and defense tech landscape. The company has struck new collaboration agreements with Safe Pro Group and Unusual Machines, seeking to bring AI-powered drone imagery and advanced computer vision into its drone platforms, including patented threat detection capabilities targeting critical government and humanitarian needs. At the same time, Ondas has brought James Acuna, a seasoned international security expert with decades of CIA field work, onto its advisory board. This signals that strategic leadership and experience are now front and center as the company aims to deepen its involvement in unmanned and autonomous systems. These developments come after a year of dramatic shifts in Ondas’ stock performance. Momentum has picked up recently, with the share price jumping 183% in the past month and up over 572% for the year. However, it is not all smooth sailing. When looking at a longer three-year stretch, the total return sits just above breakeven. Investors have watched Ondas ramp up its offerings and expand its defense focus, but questions about long-term profitability and the ability to turn robust annual revenue growth into positive net income persist. With the market clearly reacting to Ondas’ latest strategic plays, the big question is whether the buzz around these partnerships and new leadership signals real, long-term opportunity or if the rally means future growth is already reflected in the current price.

Most Popular Narrative: 17.2% Overvalued

According to community narrative, Ondas Holdings is currently viewed as overvalued. The narrative cites bold assumptions about future earnings growth, profit margin expansion, and ambitious revenue forecasts to underpin a higher fair value than current market price.

"The strategic partnership with Palantir Technologies aims to leverage advanced AI capabilities to enhance operational efficiencies and scale OAS’s operations. This is expected to support the revenue ramp and broaden their customer base, influencing earnings and margins through improved operational scale."

Ready to discover what’s fueling this eye-opening valuation call? The narrative is built on projections that could completely transform the company’s future, if they come true. The fair value comes down to some significant financial leaps and high-stakes growth bets. Which assumptions drive the numbers up? Find out what makes this forecast stand out.

Result: Fair Value of $5 (OVERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts. However, persistent high operating expenses and volatile gross margins could undermine analyst optimism, particularly if revenue growth does not meet ambitious projections. Find out about the key risks to this Ondas Holdings narrative.

Another View: Discounted Cash Flow Offers a Different Perspective

While the first valuation suggests Ondas Holdings is overvalued, our DCF model tells a very different story. This approach points toward substantial undervaluation and challenges the earlier price outlook. Could expectations be outpacing reality, or is the market missing something?

Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out Ondas Holdings for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover undervalued stocks based on their cash flows. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.

Build Your Own Ondas Holdings Narrative

If the current outlook doesn’t quite fit your view, or you want to dig into the details and build your own perspective, you can craft a custom narrative in just a few minutes. Do it your way

A great starting point for your Ondas Holdings research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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