A Look At MicroVision (MVIS) Valuation As Software Centric LiDAR Shift And Defense Focus Take Shape

Earnings and business model shift come into focus

MicroVision (MVIS) has drawn fresh attention after reporting 2025 results with US$1.21 million in sales and a net loss of US$94.98 million, alongside guidance that points to projected 2026 revenue of US$10 million to US$15 million.

At the same time, the company is reshaping itself around a software centric LiDAR model, integrating the Luminar and Scantinel acquisitions, consolidating operations into its Orlando manufacturing hub, and leaning more on industrial and defense opportunities.

See our latest analysis for MicroVision.

That reset in guidance, financing moves around the new zero coupon convertible notes, and the business update ahead of the 2025 results have all played out against sharp volatility, with a 7 day share price return of 26.74% decline adding to a 1 year total shareholder return of 50.67% decline. Recent momentum has been weak despite the software centric LiDAR push.

If MicroVision’s repositioning has you rethinking where growth in sensing and automation could come from, this is a good moment to scan 29 robotics and automation stocks as potential next ideas to research.

With the share price around US$0.57, a value score of 1, a long track record of negative total returns and analyst targets that sit well above the market, you have to ask: is this a reset entry point, or is the market already baking in the LiDAR growth story?

Most Popular Narrative: 99% Undervalued

With MicroVision last closing at about $0.57 and the most followed narrative pointing to a fair value of $60, the gap between market price and narrative estimate is wide and hard to ignore.

The investment thesis hinges on a series of de-risking events that we believe will force the market to re-evaluate its core assumptions about the company. The defense revenue acts as a stabilizing foundation. We assume MVIS captures a conservative five to seven percent of the drone sensor TAM, which is a reasonable assumption given their technological differentiation and strategic positioning.

Read the complete narrative.

It is reasonable to be curious about what kind of revenue mix could sit behind that $60 figure. The narrative leans on two very different end markets, different margin profiles, and a specific long term earnings ambition. If you want to see how those moving parts fit together into one valuation story, the full breakdown is worth a closer look.

Result: Fair Value of $60 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, the whole story still hinges on winning defense and automotive contracts. Any setback there could quickly puncture the 99% undervalued narrative.

Find out about the key risks to this MicroVision narrative.

Next Steps

If this mix of optimism and concern feels familiar, it is a good time to move fast, review the full picture yourself, and weigh the 1 key reward and 4 important warning signs before you decide what it all means for you.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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