Itron (ITRI): Valuation Check After Tucson Smart Water Expansion and New Cloud AMI Deployment

Itron (ITRI) just landed a meaningful smart water win with Tucson Water, rolling out 250,000 connected meters and a cloud platform that deepen its foothold in municipal conservation technology and recurring software-like revenue.

See our latest analysis for Itron.

The 1 year total shareholder return is down 11.7 percent and the 90 day share price return has slid about 20 percent, suggesting momentum has cooled even as deals like Tucson hint at a stronger long term growth story.

If this kind of smart infrastructure theme interests you, it is worth scanning high growth tech and AI stocks for other tech and AI names building recurring revenue from data driven platforms.

With the shares still trading at a steep discount to analyst targets despite solid revenue and earnings growth, the real question is whether Itron is quietly undervalued or if the market is already accounting for its future gains.

Most Popular Narrative Narrative: 31.4% Undervalued

With Itron shares last closing at $96.24 against a narrative fair value around $140, the implied upside leans heavily on durable utility spending and expanding margins.

Regulatory support and multiyear increases in utility CapEx budgets enhance Itron's project pipeline and backlog visibility, while any short-term deployment delays appear to simply push revenue into future periods rather than eliminate it, setting up easier revenue comparisons and potential catch-up growth ahead.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to see how steady but unspectacular growth assumptions can still justify a sizeable upside? The narrative leans on rising margins, resilient cash flows, and a future earnings multiple more often reserved for higher profile electronics names. Curious which specific long term forecasts tie all of that together into a triple digit fair value target? Read on to unpack the full valuation blueprint behind this call.

Result: Fair Value of $140.20 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, slower regulatory approvals and weaker utility orders could delay project deployments and challenge the upbeat margin and growth assumptions behind this undervaluation narrative.

Find out about the key risks to this Itron narrative.

Build Your Own Itron Narrative

If you see the story differently or prefer testing your own assumptions with the numbers, you can build a custom view in minutes: Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Itron research is our analysis highlighting 5 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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