Here's Why Flex (NASDAQ:FLEX) Has A Meaningful Debt Burden

Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital. It's only natural to consider a company's balance sheet when you examine how risky it is, since debt is often involved when a business collapses. As with many other companies Flex Ltd. (NASDAQ:FLEX) makes use of debt. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.

Why Does Debt Bring Risk?

Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. If things get really bad, the lenders can take control of the business. However, a more usual (but still expensive) situation is where a company must dilute shareholders at a cheap share price simply to get debt under control. Of course, plenty of companies use debt to fund growth, without any negative consequences. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.

Check out our latest analysis for Flex

What Is Flex's Net Debt?

As you can see below, Flex had US$2.79b of debt at December 2019, down from US$2.95b a year prior. However, it does have US$1.79b in cash offsetting this, leading to net debt of about US$1.00b.

How Strong Is Flex's Balance Sheet?

Zooming in on the latest balance sheet data, we can see that Flex had liabilities of US$7.55b due within 12 months and liabilities of US$3.69b due beyond that. On the other hand, it had cash of US$1.79b and US$3.26b worth of receivables due within a year. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by US$6.19b.

This is a mountain of leverage relative to its market capitalization of US$6.67b. Should its lenders demand that it shore up the balance sheet, shareholders would likely face severe dilution.

In order to size up a company's debt relative to its earnings, we calculate its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) divided by its interest expense (its interest cover). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).

Looking at its net debt to EBITDA of 0.92 and interest cover of 4.9 times, it seems to us that Flex is probably using debt in a pretty reasonable way. But the interest payments are certainly sufficient to have us thinking about how affordable its debt is. Flex grew its EBIT by 3.7% in the last year. That's far from incredible but it is a good thing, when it comes to paying off debt. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Flex can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.

Finally, a business needs free cash flow to pay off debt; accounting profits just don't cut it. So we always check how much of that EBIT is translated into free cash flow. During the last three years, Flex burned a lot of cash. While that may be a result of expenditure for growth, it does make the debt far more risky.

Our View

Mulling over Flex's attempt at converting EBIT to free cash flow, we're certainly not enthusiastic. But on the bright side, its net debt to EBITDA is a good sign, and makes us more optimistic. Overall, we think it's fair to say that Flex has enough debt that there are some real risks around the balance sheet. If everything goes well that may pay off but the downside of this debt is a greater risk of permanent losses. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. Take risks, for example - Flex has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.

When all is said and done, sometimes its easier to focus on companies that don't even need debt. Readers can access a list of growth stocks with zero net debt 100% free, right now.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned.

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