Apple (AAPL) Valuation Check After a Quiet 2% Monthly Gain

Understanding Apple stock’s recent move

Apple (AAPL) has been quietly grinding higher this month, up about 2% after a choppy stretch for big tech. With shares near 272 dollars, investors are weighing whether the recent gains still leave room for upside.

See our latest analysis for Apple.

Over the past year, Apple’s 11.6% year to date share price return and roughly 9.4% one year total shareholder return point to steady, if unspectacular, momentum that still reflects confidence in its growth engine rather than a major shift in risk perception.

If Apple’s steady climb has you thinking about what else could fit in a tech focused portfolio, it may be worth exploring high growth tech and AI stocks as potential next candidates.

With Apple still trading at a modest discount to Wall Street’s price targets but a premium on some intrinsic models, investors are left with a familiar dilemma: is this a fresh buying opportunity, or has the market already priced in future growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 5% Undervalued

With Apple closing at 272.12 dollars against a narrative fair value near 287 dollars, the story focuses on durable growth and premium margins.

Significant investment in expanding Apple's high margin Services ecosystem (App Store, iCloud, Apple Music, TV+, financial services) is associated with accelerating double digit revenue growth and record paid subscriptions, contributing to higher and more stable net margins.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious how steady device upgrades, richer services, and a punchy future earnings multiple all combine into that higher fair value estimate? The full narrative lays out the specific growth, margin, and valuation assumptions behind this view.

Result: Fair Value of $287 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, mounting regulatory scrutiny of App Store economics and potential iPhone cycle disappointment, particularly in China, could quickly challenge that upbeat fair value story.

Find out about the key risks to this Apple narrative.

Another Take on Value

Using our DCF model, Apple looks less generous than the narrative suggests. With an estimated fair value around 223.87 dollars versus today’s 272.12 dollars, the stock screens as overvalued and raises the question of whether long term cash flows can really carry this premium.

Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out Apple for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 916 undervalued stocks based on their cash flows. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.

Build Your Own Apple Narrative

If you see the story differently or simply want to test your own assumptions against the numbers, you can build a full narrative in just a few minutes, Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Apple research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

Ready for your next investing move?

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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