Does This Valuation Of Weave Communications, Inc. (NYSE:WEAV) Imply Investors Are Overpaying?

Key Insights

• Weave Communications' estimated fair value is US$9.17 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
• Weave Communications' US$11.07 share price signals that it might be 21% overvalued
• Analyst price target for WEAV is US$11.71, which is 28% above our fair value estimate

Today we will run through one way of estimating the intrinsic value of Weave Communications, Inc. (NYSE:WEAV) by taking the forecast future cash flows of the company and discounting them back to today's value. The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model is the tool we will apply to do this. There's really not all that much to it, even though it might appear quite complex.

Companies can be valued in a lot of ways, so we would point out that a DCF is not perfect for every situation. If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the rationale behind this calculation can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model.

See our latest analysis for Weave Communications

The Method

We are going to use a two-stage DCF model, which, as the name states, takes into account two stages of growth. The first stage is generally a higher growth period which levels off heading towards the terminal value, captured in the second 'steady growth' period. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast

	2024	2025	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033
Levered FCF ($, Millions)	US$10.3m	US$16.8m	US$22.0m	US$27.0m	US$31.4m	US$35.2m	US$38.5m	US$41.2m	US$43.5m	US$45.5m
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Analyst x3	Analyst x3	Est @ 31.26%	Est @ 22.55%	Est @ 16.45%	Est @ 12.18%	Est @ 9.19%	Est @ 7.10%	Est @ 5.64%	Est @ 4.61%
Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 7.4%	US$9.6	US$14.5	US$17.8	US$20.3	US$22.0	US$22.9	US$23.3	US$23.3	US$22.9	US$22.3

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$199m

The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 2.2%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 7.4%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₃ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$46m× (1 + 2.2%) ÷ (7.4%– 2.2%) = US$896m

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= US$896m÷ ( 1 + 7.4%)¹⁰= US$438m

The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is US$637m. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of US$11.1, the company appears slightly overvalued at the time of writing. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.

The Assumptions

Now the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate, and of course, the actual cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Weave Communications as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 7.4%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.039. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

SWOT Analysis for Weave Communications

Next Steps:

Although the valuation of a company is important, it is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. If a company grows at a different rate, or if its cost of equity or risk free rate changes sharply, the output can look very different. Can we work out why the company is trading at a premium to intrinsic value? For Weave Communications, there are three fundamental items you should further research:

1. Risks: As an example, we've found 2 warning signs for Weave Communications that you need to consider before investing here.
2. Future Earnings: How does WEAV's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
3. Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!

PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every American stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.