Shopify Inc.

NYSE:SHOP Stock Report

Market Cap: US$135.1b

Shopify Valuation

Is SHOP undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

0/6

Valuation Score 0/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of SHOP when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: SHOP ($103.94) is trading above our estimate of fair value ($97.42)

Significantly Below Fair Value: SHOP is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for SHOP?

Key metric: As SHOP is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for SHOP. This is calculated by dividing SHOP's market cap by their current earnings.
What is SHOP's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio97.1x
EarningsUS$1.38b
Market CapUS$135.14b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does SHOP's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for SHOP vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average55x
GDDY GoDaddy
14.4x-7.5%US$26.3b
VRSN VeriSign
20.3x2.7%US$17.1b
AKAM Akamai Technologies
25.1x16.5%US$13.1b
WIX Wix.com
160.2x32.3%US$11.8b
SHOP Shopify
97.1x17.2%US$135.1b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: SHOP is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (97.1x) compared to the peer average (55x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does SHOP's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US IT Industry?

5 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
TAOP Taoping
1.1xn/aUS$2.35m
GTCH GBT Technologies
0.1xn/aUS$1.68m
DLTI DLT Resolution
0.3xn/aUS$228.03k
TMNA Agri-Fintech Holdings
0.0004xn/aUS$129.25k
SHOP 97.1xIndustry Avg. 44.3xNo. of Companies5PE020406080100+
5 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: SHOP is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (97.1x) compared to the US IT industry average (44.3x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is SHOP's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

SHOP PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio97.1x
Fair PE Ratio49x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: SHOP is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (97.1x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (49x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst SHOP forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$103.94
US$115.71
+11.3%
15.4%US$145.00US$78.00n/a44
Nov ’25US$78.99
US$82.58
+4.5%
11.8%US$105.00US$65.00n/a44
Oct ’25US$78.45
US$80.53
+2.7%
11.4%US$105.00US$65.00n/a44
Sep ’25US$74.07
US$78.34
+5.8%
9.6%US$100.00US$65.00n/a42
Aug ’25US$58.17
US$76.84
+32.1%
11.0%US$100.00US$63.00n/a42
Jul ’25US$64.63
US$76.50
+18.4%
11.3%US$100.00US$63.00n/a40
Jun ’25US$59.15
US$76.60
+29.5%
11.1%US$100.00US$63.00n/a40
May ’25US$70.40
US$83.08
+18.0%
12.7%US$105.00US$63.00n/a40
Apr ’25US$78.19
US$82.53
+5.5%
12.4%US$100.00US$63.00n/a39
Mar ’25US$76.59
US$81.90
+6.9%
12.9%US$100.00US$63.00n/a39
Feb ’25US$76.72
US$75.67
-1.4%
14.5%US$100.00US$56.00n/a39
Jan ’25US$77.90
US$72.69
-6.7%
13.6%US$100.00US$53.00n/a39
Dec ’24US$73.86
US$68.21
-7.7%
10.5%US$82.00US$53.00n/a39
Nov ’24US$48.79
US$66.42
+36.1%
11.4%US$80.00US$50.00US$78.9942
Oct ’24US$54.57
US$67.94
+24.5%
10.8%US$80.00US$52.00US$78.4540
Sep ’24US$66.71
US$67.74
+1.5%
11.1%US$80.00US$52.00US$74.0740
Aug ’24US$67.45
US$64.32
-4.6%
14.2%US$80.00US$41.00US$58.1739
Jul ’24US$64.60
US$63.14
-2.3%
14.9%US$80.00US$41.00US$64.6340
Jun ’24US$57.94
US$60.76
+4.9%
17.6%US$80.00US$36.00US$59.1543
May ’24US$47.28
US$48.31
+2.2%
17.8%US$65.00US$34.00US$70.4043
Apr ’24US$47.94
US$47.68
-0.5%
17.4%US$65.00US$34.00US$78.1943
Mar ’24US$40.10
US$47.75
+19.1%
17.6%US$65.00US$34.00US$76.5942
Feb ’24US$50.26
US$41.77
-16.9%
16.9%US$60.00US$28.00US$76.7241
Jan ’24US$34.71
US$40.06
+15.4%
16.2%US$60.00US$28.00US$77.9041
Dec ’23US$43.40
US$39.69
-8.5%
16.0%US$60.00US$28.00US$73.8639
Nov ’23US$34.79
US$39.95
+14.8%
16.0%US$60.00US$28.00US$48.7939

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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