Shopify Inc.

NYSE:SHOP Stock Report

Market Cap: US$140.8b

Shopify Valuation

Is SHOP undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

0/6

Valuation Score 0/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of SHOP when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: SHOP ($108.95) is trading above our estimate of fair value ($95.68)

Significantly Below Fair Value: SHOP is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for SHOP?

Key metric: As SHOP is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for SHOP. This is calculated by dividing SHOP's market cap by their current earnings.
What is SHOP's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio101.8x
EarningsUS$1.38b
Market CapUS$140.77b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does SHOP's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for SHOP vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average49.5x
GDDY GoDaddy
15.6x-14.4%US$28.8b
VRSN VeriSign
22.2x2.7%US$19.1b
AKAM Akamai Technologies
27.4x16.3%US$14.4b
WIX Wix.com
132.9x36.4%US$12.4b
SHOP Shopify
101.8x17.6%US$140.8b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: SHOP is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (101.8x) compared to the peer average (49.5x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does SHOP's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US IT Industry?

6 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
GTCH GBT Technologies
0.3xn/aUS$3.36m
TAOP Taoping
1.3xn/aUS$2.70m
DLTI DLT Resolution
0.5xn/aUS$405.39k
TMNA Agri-Fintech Holdings
0.0004xn/aUS$129.25k
SHOP 101.8xIndustry Avg. 40.9xNo. of Companies6PE020406080100+
6 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: SHOP is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (101.8x) compared to the US IT industry average (40.9x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is SHOP's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

SHOP PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio101.8x
Fair PE Ratio49.3x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: SHOP is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (101.8x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (49.3x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst SHOP forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$108.95
US$118.86
+9.1%
13.7%US$145.00US$78.00n/a44
Dec ’25US$115.60
US$116.25
+0.6%
14.8%US$145.00US$78.00n/a44
Nov ’25US$78.99
US$82.58
+4.5%
11.8%US$105.00US$65.00n/a44
Oct ’25US$78.45
US$80.53
+2.7%
11.4%US$105.00US$65.00n/a44
Sep ’25US$74.07
US$78.34
+5.8%
9.6%US$100.00US$65.00n/a42
Aug ’25US$58.17
US$76.84
+32.1%
11.0%US$100.00US$63.00n/a42
Jul ’25US$64.63
US$76.50
+18.4%
11.3%US$100.00US$63.00n/a40
Jun ’25US$59.15
US$76.60
+29.5%
11.1%US$100.00US$63.00n/a40
May ’25US$70.40
US$83.08
+18.0%
12.7%US$105.00US$63.00n/a40
Apr ’25US$78.19
US$82.53
+5.5%
12.4%US$100.00US$63.00n/a39
Mar ’25US$76.59
US$81.90
+6.9%
12.9%US$100.00US$63.00n/a39
Feb ’25US$76.72
US$75.67
-1.4%
14.5%US$100.00US$56.00n/a39
Jan ’25US$77.90
US$72.69
-6.7%
13.6%US$100.00US$53.00n/a39
Dec ’24US$73.86
US$68.21
-7.7%
10.5%US$82.00US$53.00US$115.6039
Nov ’24US$48.79
US$66.42
+36.1%
11.4%US$80.00US$50.00US$78.9942
Oct ’24US$54.57
US$67.94
+24.5%
10.8%US$80.00US$52.00US$78.4540
Sep ’24US$66.71
US$67.74
+1.5%
11.1%US$80.00US$52.00US$74.0740
Aug ’24US$67.45
US$64.32
-4.6%
14.2%US$80.00US$41.00US$58.1739
Jul ’24US$64.60
US$63.14
-2.3%
14.9%US$80.00US$41.00US$64.6340
Jun ’24US$57.94
US$60.76
+4.9%
17.6%US$80.00US$36.00US$59.1543
May ’24US$47.28
US$48.31
+2.2%
17.8%US$65.00US$34.00US$70.4043
Apr ’24US$47.94
US$47.68
-0.5%
17.4%US$65.00US$34.00US$78.1943
Mar ’24US$40.10
US$47.75
+19.1%
17.6%US$65.00US$34.00US$76.5942
Feb ’24US$50.26
US$41.77
-16.9%
16.9%US$60.00US$28.00US$76.7241
Jan ’24US$34.71
US$40.06
+15.4%
16.2%US$60.00US$28.00US$77.9041
Dec ’23US$43.40
US$39.69
-8.5%
16.0%US$60.00US$28.00US$73.8639

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/22 01:54
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/20 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Shopify Inc. is covered by 80 analysts. 46 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Harshit GuptaAccountability Research Corporation
Richard KramerArete Research Services LLP
Rocco StraussArete Research Services LLP