Shopify Past Earnings Performance
Past criteria checks 2/6
Shopify has been growing earnings at an average annual rate of 10.3%, while the IT industry saw earnings growing at 7.4% annually. Revenues have been growing at an average rate of 23.2% per year. Shopify's return on equity is 10.7%, and it has net margins of 10.8%.
Key information
10.34%
Earnings growth rate
9.13%
EPS growth rate
| IT Industry Growth | 22.43% |
| Revenue growth rate | 23.21% |
| Return on equity | 10.66% |
| Net Margin | 10.77% |
| Last Earnings Update | 31 Mar 2026 |
Recent past performance updates
Recent updates
Analysis Article • May 07
Shopify Inc. Earnings Missed Analyst Estimates: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Now
It's been a sad week for Shopify Inc. ( NASDAQ:SHOP ), who've watched their investment drop 13% to US$105 in the week...Seeking Alpha • May 06
Shopify: Buying The Post-Earnings Dip Makes Complete Sense (Review)
Summary Shopify (SHOP) remains a 'Buy' after its Q1 2026 post-earnings dip, with catalysts intact and valuation reset meaningfully. Q1 results showed GMV up 37% YoY to $100.7B, revenue up 34% YoY to $3.17B, and strong FCF margin at ~15%. AI-driven commerce and agentic AI integrations are driving exponential early growth in traffic and orders, supporting long-term bullishness. Shopify’s merchant base appears sticky, with about 90% of revenue coming from merchants on the platform over a year, supporting future pricing power and retention. Despite near-term margin compression and cautious guidance, I see 82% upside to FY2027 at a 14x sales multiple, with Wall Street consensus at ~44%. Read the full article on Seeking Alpha
Narrative Update • Apr 29
SHOP: AI Disintermediation Fears And Sector Multiple Compression Will Pressure Returns
Analysts maintained Shopify’s fair value estimate at $110.00 and made modest adjustments to underlying assumptions, citing a mix of reduced price targets from several brokers and renewed support from others who emphasize Shopify’s role as core e-commerce infrastructure and its potential in agentic commerce and AI-powered tools. Analyst Commentary The latest round of research on Shopify reflects a split view, with some firms trimming price targets and others lifting ratings or setting higher targets.
New Narrative • Apr 17
Shopify Inc. (SHOP): The "Agentic Commerce" Pioneer and the $131 Resistance
Shopify Inc. (SHOP) , the foundational operating system for modern commerce, enters Friday, April 17, 2026 , amidst a powerful bullish pivot.Narrative Update • Apr 15
SHOP: Agentic Commerce Role Will Face Tighter Multiples And AI Disintermediation Tests
Shopify's analyst price targets have recently moved both up and down around the $150 to $165 range, with changes often tied to views on AI driven commerce opportunities, competitive positioning after OpenAI's checkout rollback, and a reassessment of sector valuation multiples. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Shopify points to a mixed but increasingly debated outlook, with bullish views on its role in AI enabled commerce set against a wave of more conservative price target resets clustered in the $150 to $165 range.Narrative Update • Apr 01
SHOP: Agentic Commerce Role Will Confront Sector Multiple Compression And High Expectations
Analysts kept Shopify's fair value estimate steady at $110, while modestly refining their assumptions for discount rate, revenue growth, margin profile and future P/E. This reflects a mix of recent price target increases tied to Shopify's role in agentic commerce and infrastructure, along with resets from other firms that cite valuation and sector multiple compression.Narrative Update • Mar 17
SHOP: Agentic Commerce Optimism Will Face Test As Expectations Stay Elevated
Shopify's analyst fair value estimate has been modestly adjusted from $111.12 to $110.00 as analysts factor in updated assumptions around discount rates, revenue growth, profit margins, and a slightly lower future P/E. Recent research highlights both rising price targets from bulls focused on AI and agentic commerce potential, and reductions from others citing valuation reset and sector multiple compression.Narrative Update • Mar 03
SHOP: Rich Multiple And Agentic Commerce Promise Will Shape Near-Term Trading
The analyst price target for Shopify in our model edges up from $110.00 to about $111.12 as analysts weigh a mix of recent target cuts and upgrades, with many still highlighting growth in agentic commerce, AI supported monetization, and the stock's pullback as key parts of their thesis. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Shopify reflects a split view, with some firms upgrading on the stock's pullback and AI and agentic commerce potential, while others are trimming targets or stepping to the sidelines after a strong run.Narrative Update • Feb 17
SHOP: Rich Multiple And Mixed Sentiment Will Likely Cap Near-Term Upside
Analysts have trimmed our Shopify fair value estimate to $110 from about $139. This reflects lower price targets across the Street as models reset for softer revenue growth assumptions, slightly reduced margin expectations, and lower sector P/E multiples despite generally solid recent results.Analysis Article • Feb 13
The Price Is Right For Shopify Inc. (NASDAQ:SHOP) Even After Diving 34%
Shopify Inc. ( NASDAQ:SHOP ) shareholders won't be pleased to see that the share price has had a very rough month...
Narrative Update • Feb 03
SHOP: AI Efficiencies And Q4 Execution Will Support Higher Earnings Power
The analyst fair value estimate for Shopify has increased from US$200 to about US$218, reflecting updated assumptions on revenue growth, profitability and future P/E following recent research highlighting Q4 fundamentals, AI driven operating leverage and a series of price target revisions and rating changes across the Street. Analyst Commentary Street research around Shopify has skewed constructive, with several bullish analysts revisiting their models and resetting price targets and ratings after recent earnings and product updates.
Narrative Update • Jan 20
SHOP: AI Monetization And Operating Leverage Will Support Measured Upside Into 2026
Analysts have nudged our implied fair value for Shopify to about US$179.49 per share, up roughly US$4 from the prior US$175.43. This reflects Street research that highlights stronger top line potential, rising AI related monetization and operating leverage, partially offset by more cautious views on valuation, margins and already high expectations.Narrative Update • Jan 06
SHOP: Lofty Multiples And Soft Cash Flow Will Restrain Near-Term Upside
Analysts increased their Shopify fair value estimate from about US$116 to roughly US$139, citing stronger expected revenue growth, a slightly higher assumed future P/E, and recent price target hikes across the Street. They attribute these changes to what they view as solid Q3 execution, despite some concerns around valuation and free cash flow.Narrative Update • Dec 17
SHOP: AI Partnerships And Margin Expansion Will Drive Measured Upside Into 2025
Analysts have nudged our Shopify price target higher to approximately $175, up modestly from about $170. This reflects slightly faster expected profit margin expansion and durable post Q3 growth momentum that they believe supports the stock's premium valuation.Narrative Update • Dec 03
SHOP: Future AI Commerce Momentum Will Drive Premium Re-Rating Into 2025
Analysts have modestly raised their Shopify price target by about $20 to roughly $190, as stronger growth, improving profit margins, and continued estimate revisions following solid Q3 results support a higher fair value despite ongoing concerns around valuation and near term cash flow softness. Analyst Commentary Recent Street research on Shopify reflects a constructive but more balanced stance, with most revisions skewing higher on price targets while calls for restraint grow louder around valuation and cash flow visibility.
Narrative Update • Nov 21
Resilient performance despite tariff and consumer sentiment pressure
Shopify’s Q3 2025 results (reported 4 Nov 2025) showed revenue growth of ~32% and GMV up ~32% despite the challenging backdrop. The The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index shows the expectations component at 71.5 (October 2025) which is below the ~80 level typically seen as a signal of recession risk.Narrative Update • Nov 19
SHOP: Future Revenue Momentum Will Drive Re-Rating Into 2025
Shopify's analyst fair value target has increased from $165.87 to $175.11. Analysts point to stronger-than-expected Q3 results and sustained revenue growth outpacing market expectations as key drivers behind the positive revision.Narrative Update • Nov 03
SHOP: Expansion And AI Integration Will Drive Continued Market Share Gains
Shopify's analyst price target has been raised from $170 to $200. Analysts cite continued strong growth momentum, robust AI innovation, and market share gains as primary drivers behind the updated outlook.Narrative Update • Oct 20
International Expansion And AI Integration Will Open New Global Markets
Shopify's fair value estimate has increased modestly to $164.45 per share. Analysts point to ongoing growth momentum, resilient market share, and enthusiasm around new AI initiatives as factors supporting a higher price target, despite recent executive departures.Narrative Update • Oct 05
International Expansion And AI Integration Will Open New Global Markets
Shopify's analyst fair value price target has increased slightly by $2.04 to $163.15. Analysts cite continued solid growth, successful product expansion, and positive momentum in recent results as factors supporting the company's higher valuation.Narrative Update • Aug 27
International Expansion And AI Integration Will Open New Global Markets
Shopify’s consensus price target was slightly raised to $161.11 as analysts highlighted exceptional Q2 results, accelerating revenue and GMV growth, and expanding international and enterprise momentum, although some caution remains on valuation. Analyst Commentary Bullish analysts cite exceptional Q2 results, highlighted by accelerating gross merchandise volume growth and revenue growth above 30% despite difficult macroeconomic conditions.Analysis Article • Aug 11
Optimistic Investors Push Shopify Inc. (NASDAQ:SHOP) Shares Up 33% But Growth Is Lacking
Shopify Inc. ( NASDAQ:SHOP ) shareholders have had their patience rewarded with a 33% share price jump in the last...Narrative Update • Aug 07
International Expansion And AI Integration Will Open New Global Markets
The significant increase in Shopify’s consensus analyst price target reflects higher growth expectations, as evidenced by a rising future P/E ratio, despite a marginal decline in net profit margin, raising the fair value estimate from $118.76 to $135.38. What's in the News FST Corp.New Narrative • Jul 16
Global Entrepreneurship And Online Retail Will Unlock Future Expansion
Global ecommerce trends, international expansion, and platform localization are driving strong merchant growth, revenue diversification, and improved onboarding for Shopify.Seeking Alpha • Apr 19
Shopify: Why Holding The Line Still Makes Sense Amid Market Uncertainty
Summary On January 19, 2025, I gave Shopify a hold rating due to its high valuation at the time. The stock price has since underperformed. Investors were disappointed in the company's free cash flow guidance for the first quarter of 2025, leading to the stock's decline. Shopify has consistently shown steady revenue growth over the last two years, a positive indicator for its long-term viability. The company is moving upmarket and has gained several large enterprises as customers during the fourth quarter. Despite its strong business model, the stock remains a hold because of macroeconomic concerns. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Mar 30
Shopify: Don't Overthink The Buying Opportunity
Summary Shopify has returned to its roots, focusing on doing what it does best, and the recent results have demonstrated that strategy. Shopify has also gained share with the higher value enterprise customers, pushing into spaces dominated by enterprise software firms. SHOP's execution is remarkable, but the stock isn't valued at a discount. While the stock is not assessed to be undervalued, buying momentum remains favorable after the recent 30% drop. I argue why SHOP offers growth investors another opportunity to accumulate while the market dithers due to recent pessimism. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Mar 21
Shopify: The Price Of Perfection
Summary Growth stocks are supposed to see growth rates decelerate over time - but is Shopify excluded from that rule? The company saw growth accelerate in the latest quarter, and management continues to guide for sustained growth ahead. The company is profitable on a GAAP basis with a net cash balance sheet. I evaluate the stock against long-term projections. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaSeeking Alpha • Feb 18
Shopify's Growth Story: Direct-To-Consumer Enabler For Independent Brands
Summary Shopify's recovery post-pandemic is impressive, with revenue growth outpacing costs, leading to improved margins and a strong market position. Shopify empowers merchants with advanced tools, AI-driven marketing, and financial services, attracting both small businesses and large enterprises like Reebok. Despite high valuation metrics, Shopify's explosive revenue growth and expanding profitability make it a compelling investment story, though competition and regulatory risks remain. Read the full article on Seeking AlphaRevenue & Expenses Breakdown
Revenue & Expenses Breakdown
How Shopify makes and spends money. Based on latest reported earnings, on an LTM basis.
Earnings and Revenue History
| Date | Revenue | Earnings | G+A Expenses | R&D Expenses |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31 Mar 26 | 12,366 | 1,332 | 2,206 | 1,576 |
| 31 Dec 25 | 11,556 | 1,231 | 2,107 | 1,515 |
| 30 Sep 25 | 10,696 | 1,781 | 2,010 | 1,476 |
| 30 Jun 25 | 10,014 | 2,345 | 1,935 | 1,435 |
| 31 Mar 25 | 9,379 | 1,610 | 1,878 | 1,392 |
| 31 Dec 24 | 8,880 | 2,019 | 1,851 | 1,351 |
| 30 Sep 24 | 8,212 | 1,383 | 1,878 | 1,423 |
| 30 Jun 24 | 7,764 | 1,273 | 1,759 | 1,294 |
| 31 Mar 24 | 7,413 | -209 | 1,696 | 1,490 |
| 31 Dec 23 | 7,060 | 132 | 1,622 | 1,612 |
| 30 Sep 23 | 6,651 | -1,148 | 1,446 | 1,624 |
| 30 Jun 23 | 6,303 | -2,025 | 1,679 | 1,833 |
| 31 Mar 23 | 5,904 | -1,918 | 1,730 | 1,637 |
| 31 Dec 22 | 5,600 | -3,460 | 1,731 | 1,485 |
| 30 Sep 22 | 5,245 | -3,208 | 1,796 | 1,323 |
| 30 Jun 22 | 5,003 | -1,901 | 1,558 | 1,125 |
| 31 Mar 22 | 4,827 | 182 | 1,379 | 956 |
| 31 Dec 21 | 4,612 | 2,915 | 1,217 | 819 |
| 30 Sep 21 | 4,210 | 3,410 | 1,060 | 699 |
| 30 Jun 21 | 3,853 | 2,452 | 937 | 623 |
| 31 Mar 21 | 3,448 | 1,609 | 854 | 570 |
| 31 Dec 20 | 2,929 | 320 | 804 | 518 |
| 30 Sep 20 | 2,457 | 196 | 767 | 470 |
| 30 Jun 20 | 2,080 | -67 | 724 | 423 |
| 31 Mar 20 | 1,728 | -132 | 683 | 382 |
| 31 Dec 19 | 1,578 | -125 | 627 | 355 |
| 30 Sep 19 | 1,417 | -127 | 567 | 310 |
| 30 Jun 19 | 1,296 | -78 | 533 | 283 |
| 31 Mar 19 | 1,179 | -73 | 493 | 254 |
| 31 Dec 18 | 1,073 | -65 | 454 | 226 |
| 30 Sep 18 | 952 | -66 | 412 | 199 |
| 30 Jun 18 | 854 | -52 | 370 | 174 |
| 31 Mar 18 | 760 | -42 | 326 | 153 |
| 31 Dec 17 | 673 | -40 | 291 | 133 |
| 30 Sep 17 | 581 | -46 | 258 | 118 |
| 30 Jun 17 | 509 | -46 | 225 | 101 |
| 31 Mar 17 | 444 | -40 | 195 | 86 |
| 31 Dec 16 | 389 | -35 | 172 | 73 |
| 30 Sep 16 | 329 | -33 | 149 | 61 |
| 30 Jun 16 | 282 | -28 | 129 | 52 |
| 31 Mar 16 | 241 | -23 | 109 | 44 |
| 31 Dec 15 | 205 | -19 | 90 | 38 |
| 30 Sep 15 | 170 | -17 | 75 | 33 |
| 30 Jun 15 | 145 | -17 | 66 | 29 |
Quality Earnings: SHOP has high quality earnings.
Growing Profit Margin: SHOP's current net profit margins (10.8%) are lower than last year (17.2%).
Free Cash Flow vs Earnings Analysis
Past Earnings Growth Analysis
Earnings Trend: SHOP's earnings have grown by 10.3% per year over the past 5 years.
Accelerating Growth: SHOP's has had negative earnings growth over the past year, so it can't be compared to its 5-year average.
Earnings vs Industry: SHOP had negative earnings growth (-17.3%) over the past year, making it difficult to compare to the IT industry average (32.4%).
Return on Equity
High ROE: SHOP's Return on Equity (10.7%) is considered low.
Return on Assets
Return on Capital Employed
Discover strong past performing companies
Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/05/11 01:16 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/05/11 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2026/03/31 |
| Annual Earnings | 2025/12/31 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
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| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
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| Market Prices | 30 years |
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| Ownership | 10 years |
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| Management | 10 years |
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| Key Developments | 10 years |
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* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
Analysis Model and Snowflake
Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.
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Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
Shopify Inc. is covered by 82 analysts. 45 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| Harshit Gupta | Accountability Research Corporation |
| Richard Kramer | Arete Research Services LLP |
| Oliver Lester | Arete Research Services LLP |