These 4 Measures Indicate That Avaya Holdings (NYSE:AVYA) Is Using Debt In A Risky Way

Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of permanent loss is the risk I worry about... and every practical investor I know worries about.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. Importantly, Avaya Holdings Corp. (NYSE:AVYA) does carry debt. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.

When Is Debt Dangerous?

Debt is a tool to help businesses grow, but if a business is incapable of paying off its lenders, then it exists at their mercy. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. While that is not too common, we often do see indebted companies permanently diluting shareholders because lenders force them to raise capital at a distressed price. Of course, plenty of companies use debt to fund growth, without any negative consequences. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.

See our latest analysis for Avaya Holdings

What Is Avaya Holdings's Net Debt?

The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that Avaya Holdings had debt of US$2.87b at the end of December 2021, a reduction from US$3.00b over a year. On the flip side, it has US$354.0m in cash leading to net debt of about US$2.51b.

How Healthy Is Avaya Holdings' Balance Sheet?

The latest balance sheet data shows that Avaya Holdings had liabilities of US$1.07b due within a year, and liabilities of US$4.31b falling due after that. On the other hand, it had cash of US$354.0m and US$898.0m worth of receivables due within a year. So its liabilities total US$4.13b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.

This deficit casts a shadow over the US$698.1m company, like a colossus towering over mere mortals. So we'd watch its balance sheet closely, without a doubt. After all, Avaya Holdings would likely require a major re-capitalisation if it had to pay its creditors today.

We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).

Weak interest cover of 0.81 times and a disturbingly high net debt to EBITDA ratio of 6.2 hit our confidence in Avaya Holdings like a one-two punch to the gut. The debt burden here is substantial. Even worse, Avaya Holdings saw its EBIT tank 34% over the last 12 months. If earnings keep going like that over the long term, it has a snowball's chance in hell of paying off that debt. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Avaya Holdings can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.

Finally, while the tax-man may adore accounting profits, lenders only accept cold hard cash. So we always check how much of that EBIT is translated into free cash flow. Over the last three years, Avaya Holdings recorded negative free cash flow, in total. Debt is usually more expensive, and almost always more risky in the hands of a company with negative free cash flow. Shareholders ought to hope for an improvement.

Our View

To be frank both Avaya Holdings's EBIT growth rate and its track record of staying on top of its total liabilities make us rather uncomfortable with its debt levels. And even its net debt to EBITDA fails to inspire much confidence. Considering everything we've mentioned above, it's fair to say that Avaya Holdings is carrying heavy debt load. If you harvest honey without a bee suit, you risk getting stung, so we'd probably stay away from this particular stock. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. Be aware that Avaya Holdings is showing 2 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 1 of those is potentially serious...

Of course, if you're the type of investor who prefers buying stocks without the burden of debt, then don't hesitate to discover our exclusive list of net cash growth stocks, today.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.