TeraWulf (WULF): Assessing Valuation After Google-Backed AI Data Center Expansion and 10-Year Lake Mariner Lease

TeraWulf, riding a wave of momentum, recently extended its rally as it secured a 10-year lease for substantial IT capacity at its Lake Mariner data center. Google's 14% equity stake adds another layer of interest as the company deepens its focus on AI infrastructure.

See our latest analysis for TeraWulf.

Momentum is clearly on TeraWulf’s side right now, as the stock has notched seven consecutive positive sessions and surged to a new record high. Excitement over its gritty expansion into AI data centers, the major 10-year lease announcement, and Google’s recent support has fueled a flurry of buying. This activity has helped power a remarkable 31.9% share price return over the past month. Stepping back, that intensity stands out even more, with a 245.8% total shareholder return over the last year and over 1,000% across three years, underscoring just how strongly investor sentiment has shifted in TeraWulf’s favor.

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But after this parabolic rise and massive influx of optimism, the key question for investors is whether TeraWulf still offers genuine value or if the market is already fully pricing in all of its future growth potential.

Most Popular Narrative: 3.8% Overvalued

With TeraWulf closing at $13.59, the most popular narrative fair value estimate sits at $13.09, suggesting the share price is hovering just above fair value expectations. This sets up a complex backdrop as bullish expansion and execution optimism clash with questions around sustainability at these lofty levels.

Long-term partnerships and investments from marquee players (Google's $1.8B lease backstop and equity stake) signal institutional validation, enhance creditworthiness, and are likely to lower WULF's future cost of capital. This directly supports margin expansion and accelerated infrastructure growth.

Read the complete narrative.

Behind the scenes, explosive growth assumptions and profit margin shifts are fueling this heady valuation. Want to uncover which numbers, forecasts, or power players tip the balance? The full narrative unpacks the eyebrow-raising projections and the precise mix of catalysts underpinning this fair value call.

Result: Fair Value of $13.09 (OVERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, sustained optimism may face headwinds if high expansion costs or delays in integrating new tenants cause future profitability to miss expectations.

Find out about the key risks to this TeraWulf narrative.

Build Your Own TeraWulf Narrative

If you see things differently or want to dig into the numbers on your own, you can build your own custom take on TeraWulf’s outlook in just a few minutes with Do it your way.

A great starting point for your TeraWulf research is our analysis highlighting 1 key reward and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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