Key Insights
- Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, VeriSign fair value estimate is US$183
- Current share price of US$197 suggests VeriSign is potentially trading close to its fair value
- Our fair value estimate is 19% lower than VeriSign's analyst price target of US$226
How far off is VeriSign, Inc. (NASDAQ:VRSN) from its intrinsic value? Using the most recent financial data, we'll take a look at whether the stock is fairly priced by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. The Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model is the tool we will apply to do this. It may sound complicated, but actually it is quite simple!
Remember though, that there are many ways to estimate a company's value, and a DCF is just one method. Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model.
View our latest analysis for VeriSign
Step By Step Through The Calculation
We use what is known as a 2-stage model, which simply means we have two different periods of growth rates for the company's cash flows. Generally the first stage is higher growth, and the second stage is a lower growth phase. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate
2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 | 2029 | 2030 | 2031 | 2032 | 2033 | |
Levered FCF ($, Millions) | US$921.0m | US$967.0m | US$988.0m | US$1.03b | US$1.14b | US$1.20b | US$1.24b | US$1.28b | US$1.32b | US$1.36b |
Growth Rate Estimate Source | Analyst x3 | Analyst x3 | Analyst x1 | Analyst x1 | Analyst x1 | Est @ 4.55% | Est @ 3.85% | Est @ 3.36% | Est @ 3.02% | Est @ 2.78% |
Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 8.0% | US$853 | US$829 | US$785 | US$757 | US$779 | US$754 | US$725 | US$694 | US$662 | US$630 |
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$7.5b
The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 2.2%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 8.0%.
Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2033 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$1.4b× (1 + 2.2%) ÷ (8.0%– 2.2%) = US$24b
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= US$24b÷ ( 1 + 8.0%)10= US$11b
The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is US$19b. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of US$197, the company appears around fair value at the time of writing. Valuations are imprecise instruments though, rather like a telescope - move a few degrees and end up in a different galaxy. Do keep this in mind.
Important Assumptions
We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at VeriSign as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 8.0%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.154. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
SWOT Analysis for VeriSign
- Debt is well covered by earnings and cashflows.
- Earnings declined over the past year.
- Annual earnings are forecast to grow for the next 4 years.
- Good value based on P/E ratio compared to estimated Fair P/E ratio.
- Total liabilities exceed total assets, which raises the risk of financial distress.
- Annual earnings are forecast to grow slower than the American market.
Moving On:
Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. For VeriSign, we've compiled three important items you should assess:
- Risks: You should be aware of the 3 warning signs for VeriSign (1 makes us a bit uncomfortable!) we've uncovered before considering an investment in the company.
- Future Earnings: How does VRSN's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
- Other Solid Businesses: Low debt, high returns on equity and good past performance are fundamental to a strong business. Why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals to see if there are other companies you may not have considered!
PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every American stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.
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Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About NasdaqGS:VRSN
VeriSign
Provides domain name registry services and internet infrastructure that enables internet navigation for various recognized domain names worldwide.
Solid track record and good value.