Nebius Group (NasdaqGS:NBIS): Valuation Insights After $19.4B Microsoft GPU Deal and New Autonomous Driving Investments

Nebius Group (NasdaqGS:NBIS) is in the spotlight after announcing a major partnership with Microsoft to deliver dedicated GPU capacity, a deal worth up to $19.4 billion. The collaboration is fueling a global push to expand Nebius’s AI cloud infrastructure, with a planned ramp-up to 1 gigawatt capacity.

See our latest analysis for Nebius Group.

It has been a whirlwind year for Nebius Group, with the share price rocketing 284% since January and a 1-year total shareholder return approaching 500%. Momentum has only accelerated with recent headline-grabbing deals, notably the blockbuster Microsoft partnership and record investments in its autonomous driving arm. This kind of sustained surge suggests that investors see not just near-term opportunity, but also lasting business transformation in Nebius’s move to full-stack AI cloud solutions and mobility tech.

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With such extraordinary momentum and headline-making partnerships, the big question now is whether Nebius Group’s meteoric rise leaves more upside for investors, or if the market already reflects every bit of that future growth story.

Most Popular Narrative: 25% Undervalued

Nebius Group’s narrative fair value target is significantly above its most recent closing price. This gap is capturing the market’s attention, given the ambitious expansion fueled by high-profile deals.

As Nebius Group aggressively expands data center capacity and pursues greenfield builds to support future growth, heightened regulatory scrutiny regarding data sovereignty and localization, especially in core markets such as the U.S., Europe, and Israel, may significantly increase compliance costs and limit expansion potential. This could negatively impact future revenue growth and raise long-term operating expenses.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious how this valuation stacks up? The narrative leans on bold revenue and earnings growth forecasts, amplified by margin assumptions that rival industry benchmarks. Discover what is powering the optimism and what numbers the market is watching.

Result: Fair Value of $156.40 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, if AI cloud demand falters or Nebius struggles with geographic expansion, these factors could quickly undermine even the most optimistic valuation assumptions.

Find out about the key risks to this Nebius Group narrative.

Build Your Own Nebius Group Narrative

If you want to dig deeper or uncover a different angle, you can craft your own perspective on Nebius Group in just a few minutes. Do it your way

A great starting point for your Nebius Group research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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