A Look at Nebius Group's (NasdaqGS:NBIS) Valuation Following $17.4 Billion Microsoft AI Infrastructure Deal

Nebius Group (NasdaqGS:NBIS) has taken center stage after announcing a multi-year partnership with Microsoft. The collaboration is set to deliver $17.4 billion in AI infrastructure and GPU capacity through 2031. This deal is fueling fresh investor interest around the company’s expansion and future prospects.

See our latest analysis for Nebius Group.

The recent Microsoft partnership is just the latest in a streak of major milestones for Nebius Group, which has quickly become a headline name in AI infrastructure. After surging 38.8% in the past month and gaining a remarkable 192.5% share price return over the past 90 days, momentum is clearly building behind Nebius. With its ambitious global expansion, landmark deals, and $17.4 billion in contracted AI revenue on the books, investors are keenly watching to see if this runaway growth can become sustainable for the long haul, especially as some valuation measures remain hotly debated.

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With Nebius shares soaring and fresh growth deals piling up, the key question now is whether the recent rally leaves the stock undervalued or if future gains are already factored in. This creates a new dilemma for investors seeking an edge.

Most Popular Narrative: 15.3% Undervalued

Nebius Group's most widely followed narrative points to a fair value of $153, which is well above the last close at $129.58. This sets expectations for further upside, but it all comes down to whether the current momentum and rapid scaling can deliver on bold projections.

The scarcity of ready-to-deploy, large-capacity data center sites has positioned Nebius advantageously, propelling the company to secure major deals with highly favorable economics. Revised price targets reflect confidence that Nebius can rapidly scale GPU installations and data center capacity. This could allow the company to outpace prior revenue and ARR projections as demand grows.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to know what’s driving this aggressive upside? The secrets are baked into ambitious growth forecasts, margin moves, and a discount rate that may surprise you. Eager to see the bold estimates and financial logic behind that fair value? Dive deeper to find out what turns this narrative into numbers.

Result: Fair Value of $153 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, intensifying competition and growing regulatory pressures remain potential hurdles that could challenge Nebius Group’s ambitious growth and profitability trajectory in the coming years.

Find out about the key risks to this Nebius Group narrative.

Build Your Own Nebius Group Narrative

If you want to look under the hood yourself, it's easy to run the numbers or shape your own view. Building a custom narrative only takes minutes. Do it your way

A great starting point for your Nebius Group research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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