A Look At Amdocs (DOX) Valuation After Its Recent Dividend Increase

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Dividend increase puts Amdocs (DOX) income appeal in focus

Amdocs (DOX) has approved a higher quarterly cash dividend, lifting the payout from $0.527 per share to $0.569 per share. This change places the stock’s income profile front and center for investors.

See our latest analysis for Amdocs.

At a share price of US$81.94, Amdocs has seen a 1-day share price return of 1.07%, a 30-day share price return of 1.78%, and a year to date share price return of 2.22%. The 1 year total shareholder return of 4.77% and 3 year total shareholder return of 5.66% point to more muted long term results, even as the dividend increase draws fresh attention to its income profile.

If this dividend move has you thinking more broadly about income opportunities, it could be a good moment to scan pharma stocks with solid dividends as another source of yield focused ideas.

With the stock at US$81.94, an indicated intrinsic discount of 38.40% and a sizeable gap to the US$102.50 analyst target, you have to ask: is there real value here, or is the market already pricing in future growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 21.2% Undervalued

The most followed narrative for Amdocs pegs fair value at $104.00 versus the current $81.94, which puts a spotlight on how that gap is being justified.

The accelerating adoption of cloud, automation, and AI/ML across telecom and media sectors is driving a multi-year wave of IT stack modernization, with Amdocs winning new large-scale modernization and migration deals in cloud, generative AI, and data services. This is expanding its total addressable market and supporting sustained topline revenue growth.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious what kind of revenue profile, margin lift, and share count assumptions need to line up for that fair value to make sense? The full narrative walks through the earnings runway and the profit multiple that would have to hold for the current discount to close.

Result: Fair Value of $104.00 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, you still need to weigh concentration in a few large telecom clients, as well as potential delays or overruns in complex multi year transformation projects.

Find out about the key risks to this Amdocs narrative.

Build Your Own Amdocs Narrative

If you see the story differently or just want to test your own assumptions against the same data, you can build a custom thesis in minutes: Do it your way.

A good starting point is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards investors are optimistic about regarding Amdocs.

Looking for more investment ideas?

If Amdocs has piqued your interest, do not stop here. Widen your watchlist with a few focused idea lists built to surface different types of opportunities.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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About NasdaqGS:DOX

Amdocs

Through its subsidiaries, provides software and services to communications, entertainment, media, and other service providers worldwide.

Very undervalued with flawless balance sheet and pays a dividend.

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MPAA often has inventory and core-related timing issues. While this quarter’s problems may ease, similar issues have recurred historically and can persist for several quarters. It's not a one-off, it's a structural part of their business. Core returns are simply estimates: How many customers will actually return the original part; how quickly they'll do so; how many are useable; what they're worth, etc. MPAA predicts X sales in a quarter and Y core returns and its reserves, inventory values, etc. are based on that. If they expect a 90% core return rate and only 80% come back it doesn't change cash but they have to write down inventory and increase cost of goods sold which impacts EPS. They've also cited inventory buildup at key customers multiple times in the past. The assumption the latest backlog will all shift into future quarters this year with no impact on pricing, etc. seems more like wishful thinking. Retailer X was slated to buy $10m in parts this quarter but finds they have a lot more inventory on hand than they anticipated so they pushed the order. Realistically there are likely to be SKU cuts, reduction in safety stock on others, etc. Assuming that all $10m will come in this year plus the regular replenishment seems pretty unrealistic. MPAA also has a shaky track record when it comes to new lines and the supposed impact on business. If you look at the EV testing solutions hype back around 2020 that was supposed to diversify them beyond traditional reman and be a higher margin business that would grow with EV adoption. But it has never turned into a material contributor. The debt reduction and stock buy backs are meaningful but IMHO this narrative takes a very optimistic view of things.

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