Commvault (CVLT) Valuation in Focus After Major AI-Powered Cloud Unity Platform Launch

Commvault Systems (CVLT) just unveiled its Commvault Cloud Unity platform, introducing major advances in AI-powered data security, cyber recovery, and identity resilience. These updates address persistent challenges brought by distributed data and hybrid cloud environments.

See our latest analysis for Commvault Systems.

Commvault’s string of AI-driven product launches, highlighted by the recent Cloud Unity platform and next-generation identity resilience tools, has attracted plenty of attention even as the stock’s momentum has cooled. After years of strong multi-year growth, the past month saw a 1-month share price return of -29.5%, while the one-year total shareholder return currently sits at -31.4%. However, its five-year total shareholder return of 144.9% reflects the company’s long-term innovation strength.

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But with shares trading well below analyst price targets and long-term returns far outperforming recent declines, investors have to ask: Is Commvault undervalued now, or is the market already pricing in all future growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 38.2% Undervalued

Comparing the narrative’s $193.70 fair value estimate to Commvault’s last close at $119.76 reveals a significant gap. This highlights a valuation story shaped by bold growth expectations in both revenue and margin expansion, despite recent share price losses. This section uncovers a core catalyst behind that narrative, one that could redefine how investors view Commvault’s future potential.

“Surging demand for enterprise data protection and recovery fueled by accelerating cyber threats, with Commvault's enhanced cyber resilience platform (including Cleanroom Recovery, Air Gap Protect, and the upcoming Satori Cyber acquisition) driving new customer adoption and increased wallet share, likely supporting sustained double-digit revenue and ARR growth.”

Read the complete narrative.

Want to know why analysts believe Commvault’s future is tied to recurring revenue streams and ambitious margin goals? The projections behind this valuation rest squarely on a handful of aggressive, surprisingly optimistic forecasts that could rival some of the fastest growing tech peers. Find out what’s powering this narrative price target and why the debate on future profits is far from settled.

Result: Fair Value of $193.70 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, shorter contract durations and margin pressures could inject more uncertainty into Commvault’s earnings outlook. This may challenge the current growth narrative.

Find out about the key risks to this Commvault Systems narrative.

Another View: Valuation Through Earnings Multiples

Looking beyond the fair value estimate, Commvault trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 65.8x. This is significantly higher than both the US Software industry average of 28.8x and the peer average of 47.6x. The fair ratio, set at 34.2x, suggests the current valuation carries clear downside risk if the market shifts toward more typical multiples. Will investor optimism keep supporting this premium, or could future market movements trigger a reassessment?

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Build Your Own Commvault Systems Narrative

If you see things differently or want to put your insights to work, you can quickly build your own narrative using our data tools in just a few minutes. Do it your way

A great starting point for your Commvault Systems research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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