Assessing Cipher Mining (CIFR) Valuation As Quarterly Earnings Approach

Why Cipher Mining is back on investor radar

Cipher Mining (CIFR) is drawing attention ahead of its upcoming quarterly earnings, as traders watch how results and any commentary on future operations might influence sentiment around the data center focused miner.

See our latest analysis for Cipher Mining.

The upcoming earnings announcement and the recent appointment of real estate specialist Thomas Duda to the board come after a mixed stretch, with a 3.89% 1 day share price return but a 13.38% 30 day share price decline. At the same time, the 1 year total shareholder return is very large and the 3 year total shareholder return is also very large, suggesting that longer term momentum has recently cooled.

If this kind of data center pivot has caught your attention, it could be a good time to scan for other opportunities across digital infrastructure using our 34 AI infrastructure stocks as a starting point.

With Cipher shares down 13.38% over the past month but still showing a very large 1 year total return and trading at a roughly 86% discount to the average analyst price target, the question is whether there is genuine value here or whether the market is already baking in future growth.

Most Popular Narrative: 43% Undervalued

The most followed narrative on Cipher Mining pegs fair value at about $26.68 per share, versus the recent close at $15.22. On that view, the stock is framed as materially discounted.

The analyst fair value estimate for Cipher Mining has edged down from US$27.25 to about US$26.68 as analysts factor in higher Street price targets tied to the Amazon Web Services AI infrastructure lease, along with emerging views on earnings visibility and valuation multiples in high density data centers.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to see why this narrative still supports a premium price tag, even after a trim to fair value? Revenue expansion, margin shifts and a rich future earnings multiple all sit at the core of the calculation. Curious which assumptions really carry the weight here, and how much growth is being pencilled in?

Result: Fair Value of $26.68 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, this hinges on continued Bitcoin driven revenue and successful AI data center build outs, and setbacks on either front could quickly weaken that undervalued case.

Find out about the key risks to this Cipher Mining narrative.

Another View: Pricing Looks Stretched

The fair value narrative suggests Cipher Mining is 43% undervalued at $26.68, but the current P/S ratio of 29.1x presents a different perspective. This level is significantly higher than the US Software industry at 3.3x, peers at 18.4x, and the 7.2x fair ratio indicated by our model. If the current pricing already reflects a substantial amount of anticipated future success, the potential downside may increase if growth or margins fall short of expectations.

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Next Steps

After considering both the bullish and cautious perspectives, if you feel the risk reward mix fits your style, act promptly and review the full breakdown of 1 key reward and 2 important warning signs before deciding where you stand.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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