Assessing Whether Bitdeer Technologies Group (BTDR) Is Undervalued After Recent Share Price Weakness

What recent performance says about Bitdeer Technologies Group (BTDR)

With no single headline event driving attention to Bitdeer Technologies Group (BTDR) today, recent price performance itself has become the focal point as investors reassess the stock’s risk and return profile.

Over the past month, Bitdeer’s share price shows a return of around 38% decline, while the past 3 months reflect about 33% decline. That context matters if you are weighing whether current levels align with your own expectations for volatility in crypto linked names.

See our latest analysis for Bitdeer Technologies Group.

At a share price of $8.55, Bitdeer’s recent 1-day share price return of 2.03% sits against a weaker backdrop, with a 7-day share price return of an 11.03% decline and a year to date share price return of a 25.97% decline. The 1-year total shareholder return of a 16.59% decline and 3-year total shareholder return of a 19.72% decline point to fading momentum rather than a short term wobble.

If crypto mining volatility has you rethinking concentration risk, this could be a good moment to scan beyond a single name and check out 17 cryptocurrency and blockchain stocks as potential comparison points.

With revenue growth of 35.40%, net income growth of 52.22% decline, and a share price far below the average analyst target of US$21.62, you have to ask: is Bitdeer undervalued, or is the market already pricing in its future?

Most Popular Narrative: 70.4% Undervalued

Against a last close of $8.55, the most widely followed narrative pegs Bitdeer Technologies Group’s fair value at about $28.92, implying a large gap that hinges on aggressive growth and margin assumptions.

The planned ramp-up to 40 exahash in self-mining capacity by Q4 2025, leveraging newly developed ASICs and expanded power capacity, is expected to significantly increase Bitcoin production, thereby driving revenue and potentially improving margins due to economies of scale.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to see what kind of revenue curve and margin swing would need to sit behind that fair value? The narrative leans heavily on rapid top line expansion, rising profitability and a future earnings multiple that assumes the market buys into that story. Curious which specific earnings path those assumptions point to, and how sensitive the outcome is to even small changes in those inputs?

Result: Fair Value of $28.92 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, recent revenue softness and adjusted EBITDA loss, alongside high R&D and capital spending, could keep earnings choppy and challenge that positive fair value story.

Find out about the key risks to this Bitdeer Technologies Group narrative.

Next Steps

With such a mixed picture on growth, profitability and valuation, it makes sense to look at the underlying data yourself and decide how comfortable you are with the risk and reward trade off. If you are weighing up both sides and want a clearer view of what stands out, take a closer look at 2 key rewards and 5 important warning signs.

Looking for more investment ideas?

If this story has you rethinking concentration risk, consider lining up a few fresh ideas before the next big move catches you off guard.

• Spot potential mispricings early by scanning our list of 53 high quality undervalued stocks that pair solid fundamentals with prices that may not fully reflect their profiles.
• Put income front and center by checking out 15 dividend fortresses, built for investors who want higher yields with a focus on resilience.
• Prioritize resilience and sleep easier at night by running through our 80 resilient stocks with low risk scores to see which companies clear a higher bar for stability.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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