Assessing Bitdeer Technologies Group (BTDR) Valuation After Strong Bitcoin Production And HPC AI Expansion

January production jump puts Bitdeer Technologies Group (BTDR) in focus

Bitdeer Technologies Group (BTDR) just reported unaudited January 2026 operating results, with Bitcoin production of 668 Bitcoin, a 430% year over year jump that puts its operational scale front and center for investors.

See our latest analysis for Bitdeer Technologies Group.

That production update lands after a choppy stretch for the stock, with a 1 day share price return of an 8.06% decline and a 7 day share price return of a 5.86% decline, even as the 30 day share price return is a 5.99% gain and the 1 year total shareholder return is a 22.09% decline. Recent momentum has been tentative despite a stronger 3 year total shareholder return of 14.55%.

If this crypto mining update has your attention, it could be a good moment to look across the wider digital asset space using our 19 cryptocurrency and blockchain stocks as a starting point.

With Bitcoin output surging and the share price still down 22.09% over 1 year despite a higher analyst price target of US$27, you have to ask: is Bitdeer undervalued today, or are markets already pricing in future growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 57.8% Undervalued

With Bitdeer Technologies Group last closing at $12.20 against a most followed fair value estimate of about $28.92, the narrative is pointing to a wide valuation gap that rests heavily on future cash flow assumptions and business mix shifts.

The analysts have a consensus price target of $21.873 for Bitdeer Technologies Group based on their expectations of its future earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors. However, there is a degree of disagreement amongst analysts, with the most bullish reporting a price target of $33.6, and the most bearish reporting a price target of just $17.0.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to see what kind of revenue ramp and margin reset would need to sit behind that fair value and price target spread? The most followed narrative leans on rapid top line expansion, a swing from deep losses to solid profitability, and a future earnings multiple more often associated with mature software names. If you are wondering how those ingredients get blended into one valuation story, the full breakdown joins the dots.

Result: Fair Value of $28.92 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, there are clear watchpoints, including the recent Q4 2024 revenue drop to US$69 million, as well as the sizeable US$531.9 million IFRS net loss.

Find out about the key risks to this Bitdeer Technologies Group narrative.

Build Your Own Bitdeer Technologies Group Narrative

If you are reading this and think the story looks different on your numbers, or simply want to test your own view, you can build a personalised thesis in just a few minutes, starting with Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Bitdeer Technologies Group research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

Looking for more investment ideas?

If Bitdeer has sharpened your focus, do not stop at one company. Use a broader watchlist of ideas to stress test your thinking and spot opportunities.

• Target stability first by checking companies that appear on our 83 resilient stocks with low risk scores and see which names align with your tolerance for downside.
• Hunt for quality at a sensible price with the 51 high quality undervalued stocks and compare how their fundamentals stack up against what you see in Bitdeer.
• Spot potential early stage opportunities by reviewing the 27 elite penny stocks with strong financials and decide which stories you want to research in more detail.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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