Update shared on 09 Feb 2026
Fair value Increased 5.63%Atlanta's flag carrier, so to speak, remains the lode star in the US network carrier heaven, with its profitability the current envy of the industry:
Total revenue per available seat mile (TRASM) in Q4/25 stood at 21.94 cents, with total cost per available seat mile (CASM) at 19.93 cents, thus yielding a net profit of some 2 cents per available seat mile. This is simply oustanding, particularly for a legacy carrier.
As such, Delta shares have kept climbing, if a bit too steep even for results as stellar as these. Point is: As of now, the recovery from last year's "Liberation Day" shock is complete, with all the good news priced in. If recent signs of a deterioration of the underlying economic cycle in the US (that is, the economy apart from the warping effects of AI spending) are to solidify, the air will get thinner from here, for transport stocks in general and airlines in particular.
Hence, I prefer to remain with both feet on the ground, raising my fair value per share to some 63 dollars, leaving absolutely no room for valuation to inflate even further, I'm sorry to say. Far better for Delta shares to lower their altitude a bit from here, the steeper to climb later on. In financial parlance: Realise some of your profits and keep the rest of your position, but no more buying for the time being.
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