A Look At Bitdeer Technologies Group (BTDR) Valuation After Hash Rate Milestone And Q4 Earnings Results

Bitdeer Technologies Group (BTDR) is back on investors’ radar after reporting Q4 and full year 2025 earnings, alongside fresh operating data and hash rate milestones that highlight its growing Bitcoin self mining footprint.

See our latest analysis for Bitdeer Technologies Group.

Those strong Q4 figures and fresh hash rate milestones arrive after a choppy run for the stock, with a 30 day share price return of 39.33% decline and a 1 year total shareholder return of 35.59% decline, pointing to fading momentum despite recent operational headlines.

If Bitdeer’s mix of Bitcoin mining and high performance computing has caught your attention, this could be a good moment to look across crypto related names using our 18 cryptocurrency and blockchain stocks as another source of ideas.

With Bitdeer’s share price under pressure despite a shift back to profitability and analysts’ targets sitting well above the current US$9.61 level, you have to ask: is this a mispriced growth story, or is the market already baking in what comes next?

Most Popular Narrative: 66.8% Undervalued

Bitdeer’s most followed narrative puts fair value at about $28.92 per share versus the last close at $9.61, framing a large valuation gap that hinges on execution in both Bitcoin mining and high performance computing.

The planned commercialization of SEALMINER ASICs, coupled with a high demand for energy efficient mining machines, represents a diversification of revenue streams and is likely to enhance revenue growth as Bitdeer becomes a key player in the ASIC market.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious what kind of revenue mix and margin profile could support that higher fair value, especially with big spending on power assets and chip development, and a higher discount rate baked in, yet a richer future earnings multiple still built into the model.

The most widely followed narrative builds this $28.92 fair value using a discount rate of 8.79%, a higher required return than before. At the same time, it now leans on slightly lower future revenue growth and slimmer long run margins than earlier versions, which keeps the fair value below prior estimates even as the projected earnings multiple increases.

That combination, higher assumed risk, more cautious profitability and a higher future P/E, shows you how much of the upside case depends on Bitdeer turning today’s self mining scale, AI datacenter build out and ASIC efforts into durable earnings. It also helps explain why the narrative still views the current $9.61 share price as leaving a wide gap to close.

Result: Fair Value of $28.92 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, you still need to weigh weaker recent revenue and EBITDA, as well as the large IFRS loss and higher spending on ASIC R&D and power projects.

Find out about the key risks to this Bitdeer Technologies Group narrative.

Another View: Market Multiple Sends a Different Signal

Those DCF and narrative fair values point to a big upside gap, but the market’s own pricing tells a tougher story. Bitdeer trades on a P/E of 34.7x, above the US Software average of 25.4x and more than three times its fair ratio of 10.5x. This hints at meaningful valuation risk if expectations cool.

That mix of a rich current P/E, a peer average at 94.6x and a lower fair ratio suggests you need to think carefully about how much optimism is already in today’s $9.61 price. It also raises the question of whether the stock moves closer to peers or closer to that fair ratio if sentiment changes.

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Next Steps

If this mix of optimism and concern around Bitdeer feels familiar, do not wait for others to decide the story for you. Our 3 key rewards and 5 important warning signs can help you weigh both sides and form your own view.

Looking for more investment ideas?

If Bitdeer has you thinking about where else value might be hiding, do not stop here. Broaden your watchlist with a few focused stock ideas.

• Target quality at a discount by scanning companies that pass strict fundamentals checks with our 54 high quality undervalued stocks for potential mispriced opportunities.
• Explore potential income ideas by reviewing companies in our 13 dividend fortresses that offer higher yields with a focus on stability.
• Identify resilient names that may hold up better in rough patches by filtering for companies in the 80 resilient stocks with low risk scores that carry lower risk scores.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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