Aspen Technology, Inc.

NasdaqGS:AZPN Stock Report

Mkt Cap: US$13.0b

We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Aspen Technology Valuation

Is AZPN undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

0/6

Valuation Score 0/6

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Analyst Forecast

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for AZPN?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

AZPN key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue14.8x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA42.7x
PEG Ratio42.3x

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does AZPN's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for AZPN vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyPSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average10.9x
BSY Bentley Systems
11.9x9.9%US$12.8b
BILL Bill.com Holdings
13.3x21.8%US$10.0b
DOCU DocuSign
5.4x9.2%US$13.1b
PCTY Paylocity Holding
13.2x17.2%US$12.2b
AZPN Aspen Technology
14.9x15.1%US$13.0b

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: AZPN is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (14.9x) compared to the peer average (10.9x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does AZPN's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Software Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a21.0%
n/an/an/a

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: AZPN is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (14.9x) compared to the US Software industry average (4.9x)


Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is AZPN's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

AZPN PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio14.9x
Fair PS Ratio6.1x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: AZPN is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (14.9x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (6.1x).


Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of AZPN when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: AZPN ($200.73) is trading above our estimate of fair value ($141.65)

Significantly Below Fair Value: AZPN is trading above our estimate of fair value.


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst AZPN forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$200.73
US$225.14
+12.2%
12.1%US$280.00US$195.00n/a7
Jan ’24US$205.40
US$257.50
+25.4%
9.5%US$283.00US$220.00n/a6
Dec ’23US$239.49
US$257.50
+7.5%
9.5%US$283.00US$220.00n/a6
Nov ’23US$240.97
US$257.50
+6.9%
9.5%US$283.00US$220.00n/a6
Oct ’23US$238.20
US$218.00
-8.5%
12.9%US$255.00US$182.00n/a6
Sep ’23US$208.11
US$214.67
+3.2%
11.8%US$255.00US$182.00n/a6
Aug ’23US$205.44
US$196.00
-4.6%
14.3%US$230.00US$160.00n/a6
Jul ’23US$191.24
US$191.50
+0.1%
14.0%US$230.00US$160.00n/a6
Jun ’23US$200.19
US$172.43
-13.9%
6.0%US$192.00US$159.00n/a7
May ’23US$158.54
US$174.00
+9.8%
5.1%US$192.00US$160.00n/a7
Apr ’23US$166.96
US$174.00
+4.2%
5.1%US$192.00US$160.00n/a7
Mar ’23US$147.52
US$171.86
+16.5%
5.9%US$192.00US$160.00n/a7
Feb ’23US$150.71
US$171.86
+14.0%
5.9%US$192.00US$160.00US$206.827
Jan ’23US$152.20
US$171.86
+12.9%
5.9%US$192.00US$160.00US$205.407
Dec ’22US$144.54
US$171.86
+18.9%
5.9%US$192.00US$160.00US$239.497
Nov ’22US$155.99
US$173.83
+11.4%
5.5%US$192.00US$160.00US$240.976
Oct ’22US$124.80
US$152.67
+22.3%
5.9%US$171.00US$144.00US$238.206
Sep ’22US$130.05
US$152.67
+17.4%
5.9%US$171.00US$144.00US$208.116
Aug ’22US$146.26
US$152.86
+4.5%
5.8%US$171.00US$145.00US$205.447
Jul ’22US$141.33
US$152.86
+8.2%
5.8%US$171.00US$145.00US$191.247
Jun ’22US$134.87
US$147.50
+9.4%
11.2%US$171.00US$110.00US$200.198
May ’22US$130.84
US$147.50
+12.7%
11.2%US$171.00US$110.00US$158.548
Apr ’22US$153.00
US$161.00
+5.2%
12.5%US$180.00US$114.00US$166.968
Mar ’22US$153.66
US$161.00
+4.8%
12.5%US$180.00US$114.00US$147.528
Feb ’22US$134.13
US$147.38
+9.9%
10.7%US$171.00US$114.00US$150.718

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.


Discover undervalued companies