Aurora Innovation, Inc.

NasdaqGS:AUR Stock Report

Market Cap: US$11.7b

Aurora Innovation Valuation

Is AUR undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

1/6

Valuation Score 1/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Book vs Peers

  • Price-To-Book vs Industry

  • Price-To-Book vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of AUR when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Discounted Cash Flow
Simply Wall St
US$4.49
Fair Value
51.3% overvalued intrinsic discount
6
Number of Analysts

Below Fair Value: AUR ($6.8) is trading above our estimate of fair value ($4.49)

Significantly Below Fair Value: AUR is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for AUR?

Key metric: As AUR is unprofitable and pre-revenue we use its Price-To-Book Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Book ratio for AUR. This is calculated by dividing AUR's market cap by their current book value.
What is AUR's PB Ratio?
PB Ratio5.8x
BookUS$2.02b
Market CapUS$11.70b

Price to Book Ratio vs Peers

How does AUR's PB Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PB ratio for AUR vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PBEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average14.9x
ALTR Altair Engineering
11.2x28.1%US$9.4b
PEGA Pegasystems
19.6x21.0%US$9.2b
BSY Bentley Systems
14.2x7.5%US$14.5b
ESTC Elastic
14.4x-2.7%US$11.5b
AUR Aurora Innovation
5.8x19.8%US$11.7b

Price-To-Book vs Peers: AUR is good value based on its Price-To-Book Ratio (5.8x) compared to the peer average (14.9x).

Price to Book Ratio vs Industry

How does AUR's PB Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Software Industry?

28 CompaniesPrice / BookEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
ETWO E2open Parent Holdings
0.7x78.7%US$910.83m
XNET Xunlei
0.5xn/aUS$164.82m
CMCM Cheetah Mobile
0.4xn/aUS$134.48m
EMBK Embark Technology
0.6xn/aUS$70.20m
AUR 5.8xIndustry Avg. 3.8xNo. of Companies32PB03.26.49.612.816+
28 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Book vs Industry: AUR is expensive based on its Price-To-Book Ratio (5.8x) compared to the US Software industry average (3.8x).

Price to Book Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is AUR's PB Ratio compared to its Fair PB Ratio? This is the expected PB Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

AUR PB Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PB Ratio5.8x
Fair PB Ration/a

Price-To-Book vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate AUR's Price-To-Book Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst AUR forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$6.80
US$5.85
-14.0%
51.7%US$10.00US$2.50n/a6
Jan ’26US$6.30
US$5.35
-15.1%
46.7%US$10.00US$2.50n/a6
Dec ’25US$6.47
US$4.42
-31.7%
34.4%US$7.00US$2.50n/a5
Nov ’25US$5.81
US$4.32
-25.7%
38.3%US$7.00US$2.00n/a5
Oct ’25US$5.55
US$3.72
-33.0%
46.2%US$7.00US$2.00n/a5
Sep ’25US$4.67
US$3.72
-20.4%
46.2%US$7.00US$2.00n/a5
Aug ’25US$4.07
US$3.77
-7.5%
35.7%US$6.00US$2.00n/a6
Jul ’25US$2.81
US$3.80
+35.2%
38.7%US$6.00US$2.00n/a5
Jun ’25US$2.39
US$3.77
+57.5%
35.7%US$6.00US$2.00n/a6
May ’25US$2.87
US$3.77
+31.4%
35.7%US$6.00US$2.00n/a6
Apr ’25US$2.91
US$3.77
+29.4%
35.7%US$6.00US$2.00n/a6
Mar ’25US$2.56
US$3.77
+47.1%
31.3%US$5.50US$2.00n/a6
Feb ’25US$3.14
US$4.02
+27.9%
42.4%US$7.00US$2.00US$6.806
Jan ’25US$4.37
US$3.97
-9.1%
44.2%US$7.00US$1.75US$6.306
Dec ’24US$2.42
US$3.97
+64.2%
44.2%US$7.00US$1.75US$6.476
Nov ’24US$1.81
US$4.52
+149.4%
40.3%US$7.00US$2.50US$5.816
Oct ’24US$2.35
US$4.60
+95.7%
37.7%US$7.00US$3.00US$5.556
Sep ’24US$3.20
US$5.15
+60.9%
36.2%US$7.00US$3.00US$4.674
Aug ’24US$3.34
US$4.71
+41.0%
51.7%US$7.00US$1.25US$4.074
Jul ’24US$2.94
US$4.21
+43.2%
49.8%US$7.00US$1.25US$2.814
Jun ’24US$1.49
US$3.95
+164.9%
59.8%US$7.00US$1.25US$2.393
May ’24US$1.33
US$3.95
+196.7%
59.8%US$7.00US$1.25US$2.873
Apr ’24US$1.39
US$3.95
+183.9%
59.8%US$7.00US$1.25US$2.913
Mar ’24US$1.46
US$3.95
+170.3%
59.8%US$7.00US$1.25US$2.563
Feb ’24US$1.97
US$3.95
+100.3%
59.8%US$7.00US$1.25US$3.143
Analyst Price Target
Consensus Narrative from 6 Analysts
US$5.85
Fair Value
16.3% overvalued intrinsic discount
6
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2025/01/31 22:49
End of Day Share Price 2025/01/31 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Aurora Innovation, Inc. is covered by 7 analysts. 6 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
George GianarikasCanaccord Genuity
Andres Sheppard-SlingerCantor Fitzgerald & Co.
Christopher McNallyEvercore ISI