We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

AppLovin Valuation

Is APP undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Analyst Forecast

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for APP?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

APP key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue2.6x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA12.2x
PEG Ration/a

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does APP's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for APP vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyPSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average8.1x
ESTC Elastic
6.1x22.5%US$5.6b
XM Qualtrics International
4.3x15.5%US$5.9b
CFLT Confluent
12.1x26.1%US$6.5b
DV DoubleVerify Holdings
9.8x20.3%US$4.2b
APP AppLovin
1.8x8.4%US$5.2b

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: APP is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (1.8x) compared to the peer average (8.1x).


Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does APP's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Software Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Industry Avg.n/a20.0%
n/an/an/a

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: APP is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (1.8x) compared to the US Software industry average (4x)


Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is APP's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

APP PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio1.8x
Fair PS Ratio3x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: APP is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (1.8x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (3x).


Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of APP when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: APP ($14.02) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($47.6)

Significantly Below Fair Value: APP is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst APP forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$14.02
US$29.50
+110.4%
42.8%US$59.00US$11.00n/a16
Nov ’23US$17.12
US$45.06
+163.2%
34.0%US$80.00US$26.00n/a16
Oct ’23US$19.49
US$52.40
+168.9%
24.5%US$80.00US$30.00n/a15
Sep ’23US$25.05
US$55.07
+119.8%
22.6%US$80.00US$30.00n/a14
Aug ’23US$34.17
US$68.47
+100.4%
31.0%US$118.00US$30.00n/a15
Jul ’23US$34.98
US$68.87
+96.9%
30.7%US$118.00US$30.00n/a15
Jun ’23US$38.31
US$75.21
+96.3%
23.4%US$118.00US$43.00n/a14
May ’23US$38.15
US$89.43
+134.4%
18.3%US$118.00US$65.00n/a14
Apr ’23US$53.27
US$96.08
+80.4%
15.6%US$118.00US$65.00n/a13
Mar ’23US$60.34
US$96.08
+59.2%
15.6%US$118.00US$65.00n/a13
Feb ’23US$67.69
US$106.38
+57.2%
21.5%US$128.00US$65.00n/a8
Jan ’23US$94.26
US$115.50
+22.5%
10.0%US$128.00US$82.00n/a12
Dec ’22US$86.13
US$109.89
+27.6%
13.0%US$125.00US$82.00n/a9
Nov ’22US$99.49
US$98.70
-0.8%
11.7%US$114.00US$80.00US$17.1210
Oct ’22US$74.78
US$85.11
+13.8%
8.2%US$95.00US$75.00US$19.499
Sep ’22US$74.30
US$78.78
+6.0%
13.2%US$95.00US$60.00US$25.059
Aug ’22US$61.47
US$76.63
+24.7%
12.0%US$95.00US$64.00US$34.178
Jul ’22US$70.98
US$76.63
+8.0%
12.0%US$95.00US$64.00US$34.988
Jun ’22US$68.86
US$75.11
+9.1%
11.7%US$95.00US$64.00US$38.319

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.


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