AppLovin (APP) Is Up 16.4% After S&P 500 Inclusion Announcement—Has The Bull Case Changed?

• S&P Dow Jones Indices recently announced that AppLovin will be added to the S&P 500 index, joining prior to the start of trading on September 22, 2025 and replacing MarketAxess Holdings.
• This milestone follows AppLovin's shift toward AI-driven advertising technologies and increased focus on e-commerce, reinforcing its positioning in a rapidly evolving digital advertising landscape.
• We’ll explore how AppLovin’s upcoming S&P 500 inclusion may influence analyst views on its future growth and market positioning.

Find companies with promising cash flow potential yet trading below their fair value.

AppLovin Investment Narrative Recap

To be an AppLovin shareholder today, you need to believe that machine learning-powered ad tech and aggressive expansion into e-commerce will add resilience and scale to the business, especially as it faces regulatory and competition headwinds. The S&P 500 inclusion could be a short-term catalyst for valuation and liquidity, but it does not lessen the ongoing risk that global data privacy regulations could meaningfully curb future growth or profitability.

Among AppLovin’s recent announcements, its robust Q2 2025 results, which saw revenue surge to US$1,258.75 million and net income reach US$819.53 million, shine brightest. These record earnings and margin expansion are proof points for the business’s current momentum and play directly into the company’s efforts to broaden its advertiser and publisher base, reinforcing the narrative behind recent optimistic analyst outlooks and short-term enthusiasm around the S&P 500 announcement.

But in contrast, investors should be aware that a single major change in global privacy law or platform policy could...

Read the full narrative on AppLovin (it's free!)

AppLovin's narrative projects $10.5 billion in revenue and $6.2 billion in earnings by 2028. This requires 22.2% yearly revenue growth and a $3.7 billion earnings increase from $2.5 billion today.

Uncover how AppLovin's forecasts yield a $499.14 fair value, a 12% downside to its current price.

Exploring Other Perspectives

Simply Wall St Community members provided 22 fair value estimates for AppLovin stock, ranging widely from US$334.05 to US$650. With earnings growth closely tied to ongoing AI advancements and expanding advertiser access, you can see just how much investor outlook varies on future returns and risks, explore several viewpoints to get a full picture.

Explore 22 other fair value estimates on AppLovin - why the stock might be worth 41% less than the current price!

Build Your Own AppLovin Narrative

Disagree with existing narratives? Create your own in under 3 minutes - extraordinary investment returns rarely come from following the herd.

• A great starting point for your AppLovin research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.
• Our free AppLovin research report provides a comprehensive fundamental analysis summarized in a single visual - the Snowflake - making it easy to evaluate AppLovin's overall financial health at a glance.

No Opportunity In AppLovin?

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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