Alarm.com Holdings, Inc.

NasdaqGS:ALRM Stock Report

Market Cap: US$2.9b

Alarm.com Holdings Valuation

Is ALRM undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of ALRM when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Discounted Cash Flow
Simply Wall St
US$63.74
Fair Value
9.4% undervalued intrinsic discount
8
Number of Analysts

Below Fair Value: ALRM ($57.76) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($63.74)

Significantly Below Fair Value: ALRM is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for ALRM?

Key metric: As ALRM is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for ALRM. This is calculated by dividing ALRM's market cap by their current earnings.
What is ALRM's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio23.1x
EarningsUS$124.12m
Market CapUS$2.86b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does ALRM's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for ALRM vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average21.4x
RIOT Riot Platforms
25.3x-39.8%US$3.0b
BL BlackLine
19.7x-41.5%US$3.2b
BOX Box
22.1x3.3%US$4.4b
CXM Sprinklr
18.7x-25.4%US$2.3b
ALRM Alarm.com Holdings
23.1x5.0%US$2.9b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: ALRM is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (23.1x) compared to the peer average (21.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does ALRM's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Software Industry?

11 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
HUT Hut 8
4x-48.2%US$1.42b
YXT YXT.COM Group Holding
0.9xn/aUS$60.08m
NISN Nisun International Enterprise Development Group
2.1xn/aUS$33.74m
HTCR HeartCore Enterprises
4.3x-50.5%US$20.68m
ALRM 23.1xIndustry Avg. 29.5xNo. of Companies16PE020406080100+
11 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: ALRM is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (23.1x) compared to the US Software industry average (29.5x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is ALRM's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

ALRM PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio23.1x
Fair PE Ratio26.3x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: ALRM is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (23.1x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (26.3x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst ALRM forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$57.76
US$73.88
+27.9%
15.2%US$85.00US$50.00n/a8
Mar ’26US$58.09
US$73.88
+27.2%
15.2%US$85.00US$50.00n/a8
Feb ’26US$60.67
US$73.63
+21.4%
15.4%US$85.00US$50.00n/a8
Jan ’26US$60.80
US$73.63
+21.1%
15.4%US$85.00US$50.00n/a8
Dec ’25US$65.14
US$72.63
+11.5%
15.5%US$85.00US$50.00n/a8
Nov ’25US$53.42
US$73.71
+38.0%
13.8%US$85.00US$60.00n/a7
Oct ’25US$53.85
US$77.00
+43.0%
10.8%US$85.00US$64.00n/a8
Sep ’25US$59.54
US$78.86
+32.4%
9.1%US$85.00US$65.00n/a7
Aug ’25US$68.34
US$79.86
+16.9%
7.6%US$85.00US$70.00n/a7
Jul ’25US$62.79
US$80.71
+28.5%
6.5%US$85.00US$70.00n/a7
Jun ’25US$65.41
US$80.71
+23.4%
6.5%US$85.00US$70.00n/a7
May ’25US$66.90
US$80.78
+20.7%
6.1%US$85.00US$70.00n/a8
Apr ’25US$71.16
US$80.78
+13.5%
6.1%US$85.00US$70.00n/a8
Mar ’25US$75.53
US$80.57
+6.7%
6.5%US$85.00US$70.00US$58.097
Feb ’25US$61.87
US$68.57
+10.8%
5.5%US$75.00US$62.00US$60.677
Jan ’25US$64.62
US$66.25
+2.5%
8.5%US$75.00US$55.00US$60.808
Dec ’24US$56.48
US$66.25
+17.3%
8.5%US$75.00US$55.00US$65.148
Nov ’24US$50.38
US$66.00
+31.0%
8.9%US$75.00US$55.00US$53.428
Oct ’24US$61.14
US$66.00
+7.9%
8.9%US$75.00US$55.00US$53.858
Sep ’24US$59.47
US$65.25
+9.7%
9.3%US$75.00US$55.00US$59.548
Aug ’24US$55.04
US$63.50
+15.4%
10.2%US$75.00US$55.00US$68.348
Jul ’24US$51.68
US$64.13
+24.1%
12.3%US$75.00US$54.00US$62.798
Jun ’24US$48.96
US$64.13
+31.0%
12.3%US$75.00US$54.00US$65.418
May ’24US$47.39
US$65.57
+38.4%
11.3%US$75.00US$55.00US$66.907
Apr ’24US$50.28
US$64.00
+27.3%
10.7%US$75.00US$55.00US$71.166
Mar ’24US$50.23
US$62.29
+24.0%
12.2%US$75.00US$52.00US$75.537
Analyst Price Target
Consensus Narrative from 8 Analysts
US$73.88
Fair Value
21.8% undervalued intrinsic discount
8
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2025/03/26 22:22
End of Day Share Price 2025/03/26 00:00
Earnings2024/12/31
Annual Earnings2024/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Alarm.com Holdings, Inc. is covered by 15 analysts. 8 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Saket KaliaBarclays
Michael FunkBofA Global Research
Michael NemeroffCredit Suisse