Alarm.com Holdings, Inc.

NasdaqGS:ALRM Stock Report

Market Cap: US$3.0b

Alarm.com Holdings Valuation

Is ALRM undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of ALRM when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: ALRM ($60.78) is trading above our estimate of fair value ($56.89)

Significantly Below Fair Value: ALRM is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for ALRM?

Key metric: As ALRM is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for ALRM. This is calculated by dividing ALRM's market cap by their current earnings.
What is ALRM's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio24x
EarningsUS$125.09m
Market CapUS$2.98b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does ALRM's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for ALRM vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average40x
BLKB Blackbaud
79.9x25.3%US$4.1b
AGYS Agilysys
38.2x-71.3%US$3.5b
BL BlackLine
30.4x-26.2%US$3.7b
HUT Hut 8
11.6x-55.0%US$2.3b
ALRM Alarm.com Holdings
24x7.7%US$3.0b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: ALRM is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (24x) compared to the peer average (31.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does ALRM's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the US Software Industry?

11 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
AISP Airship AI Holdings
4.3x-27.8%US$69.85m
GRRR Gorilla Technology Group
2.3x-67.4%US$45.52m
NISN Nisun International Enterprise Development Group
2xn/aUS$33.99m
NXTT Next Technology Holding
0.6xn/aUS$13.95m
ALRM 24.0xIndustry Avg. 41.5xNo. of Companies12PE020406080100+
11 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: ALRM is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (24x) compared to the US Software industry average (41x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is ALRM's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

ALRM PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio24x
Fair PE Ratio28.4x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: ALRM is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (24x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (28.4x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst ALRM forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$60.78
US$72.63
+19.5%
15.5%US$85.00US$50.00n/a8
Nov ’25US$53.42
US$73.71
+38.0%
13.8%US$85.00US$60.00n/a7
Oct ’25US$53.85
US$77.00
+43.0%
10.8%US$85.00US$64.00n/a8
Sep ’25US$59.54
US$78.86
+32.4%
9.1%US$85.00US$65.00n/a7
Aug ’25US$68.34
US$79.86
+16.9%
7.6%US$85.00US$70.00n/a7
Jul ’25US$62.79
US$80.71
+28.5%
6.5%US$85.00US$70.00n/a7
Jun ’25US$65.41
US$80.71
+23.4%
6.5%US$85.00US$70.00n/a7
May ’25US$66.90
US$80.78
+20.7%
6.1%US$85.00US$70.00n/a8
Apr ’25US$71.16
US$80.78
+13.5%
6.1%US$85.00US$70.00n/a8
Mar ’25US$75.53
US$80.57
+6.7%
6.5%US$85.00US$70.00n/a7
Feb ’25US$61.87
US$68.57
+10.8%
5.5%US$75.00US$62.00n/a7
Jan ’25US$64.62
US$66.25
+2.5%
8.5%US$75.00US$55.00n/a8
Dec ’24US$56.48
US$66.25
+17.3%
8.5%US$75.00US$55.00n/a8
Nov ’24US$50.38
US$66.00
+31.0%
8.9%US$75.00US$55.00US$53.428
Oct ’24US$61.14
US$66.00
+7.9%
8.9%US$75.00US$55.00US$53.858
Sep ’24US$59.47
US$65.25
+9.7%
9.3%US$75.00US$55.00US$59.548
Aug ’24US$55.04
US$63.50
+15.4%
10.2%US$75.00US$55.00US$68.348
Jul ’24US$51.68
US$64.13
+24.1%
12.3%US$75.00US$54.00US$62.798
Jun ’24US$48.96
US$64.13
+31.0%
12.3%US$75.00US$54.00US$65.418
May ’24US$47.39
US$65.57
+38.4%
11.3%US$75.00US$55.00US$66.907
Apr ’24US$50.28
US$64.00
+27.3%
10.7%US$75.00US$55.00US$71.166
Mar ’24US$50.23
US$62.29
+24.0%
12.2%US$75.00US$52.00US$75.537
Feb ’24US$55.17
US$74.00
+34.1%
26.2%US$120.00US$52.00US$61.878
Jan ’24US$49.48
US$74.00
+49.6%
26.2%US$120.00US$52.00US$64.628
Dec ’23US$49.89
US$74.00
+48.3%
26.2%US$120.00US$52.00US$56.488
Nov ’23US$58.74
US$85.13
+44.9%
17.1%US$120.00US$70.00US$50.388

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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