Assessing Rigetti Computing (RGTI) Valuation After Cepheus Quantum Computer Launch Delay

Rigetti Computing (RGTI) has come under fresh scrutiny after it postponed the launch of its Cepheus-1-108Q quantum computer due to technical setbacks, just as rival IonQ advanced its own manufacturing ambitions.

See our latest analysis for Rigetti Computing.

The postponement of Cepheus-1-108Q has gone hand in hand with a sharp reset in expectations, with Rigetti’s 1-day share price return of 12.89% and 30-day share price return of 41.00% pulling its year to date share price return to 36.55% in the red, even though the 1-year total shareholder return is 12.68% and the 3-year total shareholder return is very large at over 13x.

If this delay has you reassessing quantum bets, it could be worth scanning a broader set of quantum names using our screener of 22 quantum computing stocks to see how peers compare on recent performance and risks.

With Rigetti’s shares well below analyst targets and screens flagging a large implied discount, the key question now is whether the recent setback has left the stock undervalued or if the market is already baking in years of future growth.

Most Popular Narrative: 38.9% Undervalued

At a last close of $14.98 versus a narrative fair value of $24.50, Rigetti’s valuation gap is front and center for anyone following the stock.

The trajectory of quantum computing, particularly in the context of Rigetti Computing and the Quantum Benchmark Testing System (QBTS), could witness significant shifts. Trump's emphasis on "America First" policies might lead to increased funding for public-private partnerships and The Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA)'s R&D works in critical technologies, including quantum computing, as part of national security and technological supremacy initiatives. Although the company may not achieve profitability in the short or medium term, 2025 will be a much positive year in terms of strengthening commercial relationships and improving cash flow.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious how a story that still expects losses can point to a higher fair value? According to LongTermer, the key levers are revenue acceleration, margin shifts and a richer future earnings multiple. The specific assumptions behind those drivers sit at the heart of this 38.9% discount call.

Result: Fair Value of $24.50 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, this hinges on Rigetti turning rapid 54.63% annual revenue growth into a clear path toward smaller losses on its US$350.964 million net loss base.

Find out about the key risks to this Rigetti Computing narrative.

Build Your Own Rigetti Computing Narrative

If you see the numbers differently or just want to stress test your own view against the data, you can build a custom Rigetti story in a few minutes, starting with Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Rigetti Computing research is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards and 4 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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