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EU#4 - Turning Heritage into the World’s Strongest Luxury Empire

Published
28 Jan 26
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2.9k
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Tokyo's Fair Value
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1Y
-21.0%
7D
-4.4%

Author's Valuation

€750.0433.6% undervalued intrinsic discount

Tokyo's Fair Value

LVMH: Turning Heritage into the World’s Strongest Luxury Empire

Luxury is supposed to be rare, handcrafted, and personal. Scale, on the other hand, belongs to factories and fast-moving consumer goods. For decades, these two ideas seemed fundamentally incompatible. And yet, one company managed to combine them better than anyone else: LVMH.

Today, LVMH is not only the largest luxury group in the world, but also one of the most valuable companies in Europe. Its story is not about fashion trends or fleeting hype—it is about building a system that turns heritage into a compounding business model.

From Craft to Corporation

LVMH traces its roots back far beyond its official founding. In 1987, the group was formed through the merger of Louis Vuitton, the iconic French trunk maker founded in 1854, and Moët Hennessy, a union of prestigious champagne and spirits houses. The idea was simple but radical: luxury brands could remain independent and creative, while benefiting from shared financial strength and strategic discipline.

The architect of this vision was Bernard Arnault. While not a “founder” in the traditional sense, Arnault quickly became the controlling force behind LVMH and remains deeply involved today as Chairman and CEO. His role has always been less about designing products and more about designing structures—protecting creative freedom while enforcing capital discipline.

Why LVMH Became So Successful

LVMH’s success lies in a counterintuitive insight: luxury brands thrive when they are not run like a typical conglomerate. Each maison within the group operates with significant autonomy. Designers are given space, heritage is respected, and brand identity is never diluted for short-term growth.

At the same time, LVMH centralizes what truly benefits from scale: financing, real estate strategy, supply chain coordination, and talent development. This balance—decentralized creativity with centralized control—proved incredibly hard for competitors to replicate.

What Customers Really Buy

Customers do not buy LVMH products because they are functionally superior. They buy meaning. A Louis Vuitton bag or a Bulgari necklace carries history, craftsmanship, and cultural relevance. LVMH perfected the art of charging not for materials, but for stories.

Crucially, the group mastered exclusivity without becoming inaccessible. Flagship stores, selective distribution, and tightly controlled pricing ensure that demand always feels slightly ahead of supply. This creates desire—and keeps it alive over decades.

The Moat No One Can Cross Easily

LVMH’s competitive moat is deep and multi-layered. First, there is brand power built over generations, not marketing cycles. Second, vertical integration allows control over quality, availability, and customer experience. Third, financial strength enables LVMH to invest during downturns, when others retreat.

Most importantly, LVMH understands that luxury cannot be rushed. Brands are nurtured patiently, sometimes over decades, until they reach their full potential.

Competition: Clearly Number One

The global luxury market has strong players—Kering, Richemont, and Estée Lauder among them. Yet LVMH stands clearly at number one. Its unmatched breadth across fashion, leather goods, jewelry, watches, wines, spirits, perfumes, cosmetics, and selective retailing creates resilience and optionality competitors lack.

This leadership is not only brand-driven, but structurally enforced through control over where and how luxury is experienced. LVMH increasingly owns the access points to luxury consumption.

“Selective Retailing showed strong momentum, with Sephora continuing to gain market share globally, while the Group reinforced excellence in retail and customer experience across all regions.”

[LVMH 2025 Third Quarter Revenue]

Owning distribution, customer experience and physical presence allows LVMH to shape demand rather than merely respond to it.

Technology Without Losing the Soul

Technology has quietly reshaped LVMH. Supply chains became more transparent, inventory management more precise, and customer data more intelligently used. E-commerce was introduced carefully, ensuring digital channels enhance brands rather than cheapen them.

These technological evolutions improved margins and reduced volatility—factors that played a significant role in the group’s long-term share price performance. Investors increasingly view LVMH as a “luxury compounder”: not flashy, but relentlessly value-accretive.

Buying Icons, Not Experiments

LVMH’s acquisition strategy reflects its philosophy. The group does not buy turnarounds; it buys icons. Dior, Bulgari, and Tiffany & Co. were all acquired at seemingly high prices, but with one clear goal: long-term brand compounding.

Post-acquisition, LVMH avoids heavy-handed integration. Instead, it provides capital, expertise, and patience—allowing brands to flourish on their own terms.

What Comes Next

Looking ahead, LVMH itself frames its strategy less in terms of short-term optimisation and more in terms of long-term system strength—even in an uncertain macroeconomic environment.

In an uncertain economic and geopolitical environment, the Group remains confident and will maintain a strategy focused on continuously enhancing the desirability of its brands, drawing on the authenticity and quality of its products, excellence in retail and agile organization.

[LVMH 2025 Third Quarter Revenue]

This statement captures the essence of LVMH’s approach: investing in desirability, retail infrastructure and organisational strength rather than reacting tactically to cycles.

Strategic Outlook

Next 3 years: defending margins and brand equity in a volatile macro environment. Next 3–5 years: expanding luxury into experiences, hospitality, and lifestyle. Next 5–10 years: shaping global luxury culture as an infrastructure, not a trend.

In Detail

Next 3–5 Years (Mid Term): Investor View – Concrete Value Drivers

  • Monetising experiences instead of only products: private fashion shows, invitation-only events and experiential product launches increase willingness to pay by selling memory, belonging and status, not just objects
  • Scaling luxury hospitality as a profit pool: expansion of Cheval Blanc (LVMH’s ultra-luxury hotel brand) and Belmond (luxury hotels, resorts and iconic luxury trains acquired in 2019) integrates fashion, design, gastronomy and service into high-margin destinations with recurring customer spend
  • Owning more of the customer’s life, not just the wardrobe: shifting the value proposition from “What do you wear?” to “How do you live?” increases touchpoints and customer lifetime value
  • Expanding into structurally larger markets: while product luxury is finite, experience and lifestyle markets are theoretically unlimited—especially attractive for younger generations

Next 5–10 Years (Long Term): Investor View – Concrete Value Drivers

  • Structural control over value creation: LVMH increasingly defines what qualifies as luxury and how luxury is distributed globally
  • Sustained pricing power through rule-setting: by controlling stages, codes and reference points, LVMH anchors price expectations over cycles
  • Long-term talent and brand compounding: systematic identification, scaling and retention of designers and cultural leaders
  • Moat durability through system dominance: as the operating system of global luxury, LVMH raises entry barriers while brands outside the system lose relevance

Will LVMH Be Better in Ten Years?

Probably not louder. Not faster. But very likely stronger.

LVMH’s greatest asset is patience. In a world obsessed with speed, it builds slowly—and compounds relentlessly. That may turn out to be the most enduring form of luxury of all.

  

Valuation

Over the next 5 years I calculate with (actual values from 25.01.26, price/shr at 591 EUR):

Revenue Growth p.a.: 7% (Currently at 4,3%) – Sales growth from 2015 to 2023 was 12% p.a., then 2023-2025 it was negativ with -3,6% p.a. (normalisation after post-Covid-Boom and Currency Effects). In the next 5 years expect 7% p.a. (because of MC will be a dominant Infrastructure-Player in Luxury), after that I expect even 8-9% p.a.

 Profit Margin: 18% (currently at 13,3%) – in the last ten year profit margin was between 12 and 18% p.a.. As a dominant Infrastructure-Player I expect MC to return tot he upper level, means 18% p.a..

 Future PE: 26 (currently at 26,8) – in the last 10 years PE was between 20 to 35, actual at 27. In the average PE was 26, what I consider reasonable.

Interest rate: 8,35% (same as current) 

Wich leads to an FV of 750 EUR, means MC trades with 21,2% under fair value.

 

I calculate the internal rate of return (IRR) of an investement at current stock price on a period of 5 years. At current value I get 13,6% annual return on share price, including dividends even 16,0%.

 

This is significant over my expectation of 10%.

 

Series: The biggest EU stocks:

  • #1 – SAP
  • #2 – Novo Nordisk
  • #3 – ASML
  • #4 – LVMH
  • #5 – ??? (coming soon)

 <<< To see my other narratives, please scroll up and klick on Tokyo (next to my profile picture) >>>

 

If you enjoy my writing you can find more on the link in my BIO!

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The user Tokyo holds no position in ENXTPA:MC. Simply Wall St has no position in any of the companies mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The author of this narrative is not affiliated with, nor authorised by Simply Wall St as a sub-authorised representative. This narrative is general in nature and explores scenarios and estimates created by the author. The narrative does not reflect the opinions of Simply Wall St, and the views expressed are the opinion of the author alone, acting on their own behalf. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in the ideas they cover. The fair value estimates are estimations only, and does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that the author's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

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