Monolithic Power Systems (MPWR): Assessing Valuation After a 60% Year-to-Date Rally

Monolithic Power Systems (MPWR) has quietly extended its strong run this year, with the stock up about 60% year to date and roughly 84% over the past 3 months, drawing fresh attention to its valuation.

See our latest analysis for Monolithic Power Systems.

The recent surge in Monolithic Power Systems' 1 year to date share price return, alongside a 3 year total shareholder return above 170%, signals strong momentum as investors lean into its structural growth story and reassess long term upside versus rich valuation.

If MPWR's run has you thinking about what else could surprise on the upside, now is a good moment to explore high growth tech and AI stocks for other potential winners in similar themes.

Yet with shares now hovering near four figures and trading at a premium to many chip peers, investors must ask whether MPWR’s valuation still leaves room for upside or if the market is already pricing in years of future growth.

Most Popular Narrative: 19.4% Undervalued

With Monolithic Power Systems last closing at $951.36 versus a narrative fair value near $1,181, the story leans toward meaningful upside if its growth path holds.

The company's transformation from a chip only semiconductor supplier to a full service silicon based solutions provider, and its focus on vertical, module based, and system level solutions, allow it to capture higher value, increase customer stickiness, and drive gross and operating margin expansion critical for long term earnings growth.

Read the complete narrative.

Curious how a power chip specialist gets this kind of upside case? The narrative leans on ambitious growth, resilient margins, and a bold future earnings multiple. Want to see the precise forecasts behind that stance?

Result: Fair Value of $1180.93 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, this upside view could unravel if AI data center demand normalizes faster than expected or if elevated R and D and compliance costs compress margins.

Find out about the key risks to this Monolithic Power Systems narrative.

Another Lens on Valuation

Step away from narratives and future earnings for a moment and the simple price to earnings ratio paints a cooler picture. MPWR trades at about 24 times earnings, cheaper than the US semiconductor industry at 36.8 times and peers at 36.4 times, and only slightly above its 23.5 times fair ratio. This suggests less froth than the story might imply, but it raises the question of whether that is enough cushion if growth stumbles.

See what the numbers say about this price — find out in our valuation breakdown.

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out Monolithic Power Systems for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 909 undervalued stocks based on their cash flows. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.

Build Your Own Monolithic Power Systems Narrative

If you see the story differently or want to dig into the numbers yourself, you can build a personalized view in just minutes: Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Monolithic Power Systems research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 3 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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