Monolithic Power Systems, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:MPWR) Shareholders Might Be Looking For Exit

It's not a stretch to say that Monolithic Power Systems, Inc.'s (NASDAQ:MPWR) price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 15.7x right now seems quite "middle-of-the-road" compared to the market in the United States, where the median P/E ratio is around 17x. While this might not raise any eyebrows, if the P/E ratio is not justified investors could be missing out on a potential opportunity or ignoring looming disappointment.

We've found 21 US stocks that are forecast to pay a dividend yield of over 6% next year. See the full list for free.

With earnings growth that's superior to most other companies of late, Monolithic Power Systems has been doing relatively well. It might be that many expect the strong earnings performance to wane, which has kept the P/E from rising. If not, then existing shareholders have reason to be feeling optimistic about the future direction of the share price.

See our latest analysis for Monolithic Power Systems

Want the full picture on analyst estimates for the company? Then our free report on Monolithic Power Systems will help you uncover what's on the horizon.

What Are Growth Metrics Telling Us About The P/E?

In order to justify its P/E ratio, Monolithic Power Systems would need to produce growth that's similar to the market.

If we review the last year of earnings growth, the company posted a terrific increase of 310%. Pleasingly, EPS has also lifted 607% in aggregate from three years ago, thanks to the last 12 months of growth. Accordingly, shareholders would have probably welcomed those medium-term rates of earnings growth.

Shifting to the future, estimates from the analysts covering the company suggest earnings growth is heading into negative territory, declining 19% per annum over the next three years. That's not great when the rest of the market is expected to grow by 10% each year.

In light of this, it's somewhat alarming that Monolithic Power Systems' P/E sits in line with the majority of other companies. It seems most investors are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects, but the analyst cohort is not so confident this will happen. There's a good chance these shareholders are setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with the negative growth outlook.

The Key Takeaway

Typically, we'd caution against reading too much into price-to-earnings ratios when settling on investment decisions, though it can reveal plenty about what other market participants think about the company.

We've established that Monolithic Power Systems currently trades on a higher than expected P/E for a company whose earnings are forecast to decline. When we see a poor outlook with earnings heading backwards, we suspect share price is at risk of declining, sending the moderate P/E lower. Unless these conditions improve, it's challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.

Don't forget that there may be other risks. For instance, we've identified 4 warning signs for Monolithic Power Systems (2 are concerning) you should be aware of.

Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking at a few good candidates. So take a peek at this free list of companies with a strong growth track record, trading on a low P/E.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.