Assessing ASML Holding's (NasdaqGS:ASML) Valuation After an 18% One-Month Share Price Climb

ASML Holding (NasdaqGS:ASML) stock has seen a steady climb lately. This movement has drawn attention as investors look for growth opportunities in the semiconductor space. In the past month, shares are up around 18%.

See our latest analysis for ASML Holding.

Momentum is clearly building for ASML Holding, with the stock notching an impressive 18% one-month share price return and riding a wave of upbeat sentiment among semiconductor names this year. Over the longer term, investors have benefited from a 43.5% total shareholder return in the past year. This highlights both near-term optimism around industry demand and the company’s strong positioning in the market.

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With such strong recent gains, the key question remains: is ASML Holding still undervalued with room to run, or has the stock already factored in all of its anticipated future growth?

Most Popular Narrative: 2.7% Overvalued

The current market price for ASML Holding stands slightly above the narrative’s fair value, signaling a premium relative to forward prospects. This narrative from Investingwilly frames high quality earnings and a robust market position alongside a more reserved valuation.

ASML delivered a solid quarter, with:

• Net sales of €7.7 billion
• Gross margin of 53.7%
• Net income of €2.3 billion (29.8% margin)
• €5.5 billion in net bookings, including €2.3 billion in EUV orders
• €2.1 billion in Installed Base Management (IBM) sales

In addition, ASML successfully shipped its first TWINSCAN EXE:5200B, a next-generation EUV machine built for even smaller and more powerful chips.

Read the complete narrative.

What hidden assumptions are fueling this premium valuation? The core narrative relies on bullish forecasts for margins and future chip demand, supported by formidable backlog and recurring service streams. What else is factored into the price? Uncover the precise profit and revenue expectations driving that fair value—some may surprise you.

Result: Fair Value of $1002.53 (OVERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, macroeconomic uncertainty and ongoing geopolitical tensions could challenge ASML's momentum and could alter its longer-term growth outlook.

Find out about the key risks to this ASML Holding narrative.

Build Your Own ASML Holding Narrative

If you see things differently or want to dig deeper into the numbers yourself, you can quickly build your own take using our tools in just a few minutes, so why not Do it your way?

A good starting point is our analysis highlighting 2 key rewards investors are optimistic about regarding ASML Holding.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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