Today we'll do a simple run through of a valuation method used to estimate the attractiveness of Alpha and Omega Semiconductor Limited (NASDAQ:AOSL) as an investment opportunity by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting them to today's value. Our analysis will employ the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Before you think you won't be able to understand it, just read on! It's actually much less complex than you'd imagine.
Companies can be valued in a lot of ways, so we would point out that a DCF is not perfect for every situation. If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the rationale behind this calculation can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model.
Is Alpha and Omega Semiconductor fairly valued?
We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. To start off with, we need to estimate the next ten years of cash flows. Seeing as no analyst estimates of free cash flow are available to us, we have extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the company's last reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.
Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we discount the value of these future cash flows to their estimated value in today's dollars:
10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast
|Levered FCF ($, Millions)||US$28.2m||US$41.4m||US$55.3m||US$68.5m||US$80.4m||US$90.7m||US$99.4m||US$106.6m||US$112.6m||US$117.8m|
|Growth Rate Estimate Source||Est @ 66.16%||Est @ 46.91%||Est @ 33.43%||Est @ 24%||Est @ 17.4%||Est @ 12.77%||Est @ 9.54%||Est @ 7.27%||Est @ 5.69%||Est @ 4.58%|
|Present Value ($, Millions) Discounted @ 8.0%||US$26.1||US$35.5||US$43.9||US$50.4||US$54.8||US$57.3||US$58.1||US$57.7||US$56.5||US$54.7|
("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = US$495m
After calculating the present value of future cash flows in the initial 10-year period, we need to calculate the Terminal Value, which accounts for all future cash flows beyond the first stage. The Gordon Growth formula is used to calculate Terminal Value at a future annual growth rate equal to the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield of 2.0%. We discount the terminal cash flows to today's value at a cost of equity of 8.0%.
Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2030 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = US$118m× (1 + 2.0%) ÷ (8.0%– 2.0%) = US$2.0b
Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= US$2.0b÷ ( 1 + 8.0%)10= US$933m
The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is US$1.4b. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of US$28.5, the company appears quite good value at a 48% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.
The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. If you don't agree with these result, have a go at the calculation yourself and play with the assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at Alpha and Omega Semiconductor as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 8.0%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.267. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.
Whilst important, the DCF calculation shouldn't be the only metric you look at when researching a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Instead the best use for a DCF model is to test certain assumptions and theories to see if they would lead to the company being undervalued or overvalued. For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. Why is the intrinsic value higher than the current share price? For Alpha and Omega Semiconductor, we've compiled three fundamental factors you should consider:
- Risks: Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 2 warning signs with Alpha and Omega Semiconductor , and understanding these should be part of your investment process.
- Future Earnings: How does AOSL's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
- Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!
PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the NASDAQGS every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.
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Alpha and Omega Semiconductor
Alpha and Omega Semiconductor Limited designs, develops, and supplies power semiconductor products for computing, consumer electronics, communication, and industrial applications in Hong Kong, China, South Korea, the United States, and internationally.
Excellent balance sheet with solid track record.