Guess?, Inc.'s (NYSE:GES) Price Is Right But Growth Is Lacking

When close to half the companies in the United States have price-to-earnings ratios (or "P/E's") above 19x, you may consider Guess?, Inc. (NYSE:GES) as a highly attractive investment with its 5.4x P/E ratio. However, the P/E might be quite low for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.

Guess? certainly has been doing a good job lately as its earnings growth has been positive while most other companies have been seeing their earnings go backwards. It might be that many expect the strong earnings performance to degrade substantially, possibly more than the market, which has repressed the P/E. If not, then existing shareholders have reason to be quite optimistic about the future direction of the share price.

See our latest analysis for Guess?

Want the full picture on analyst estimates for the company? Then our free report on Guess? will help you uncover what's on the horizon.

What Are Growth Metrics Telling Us About The Low P/E?

In order to justify its P/E ratio, Guess? would need to produce anemic growth that's substantially trailing the market.

Taking a look back first, we see that the company grew earnings per share by an impressive 20% last year. The latest three year period has also seen a 24% overall rise in EPS, aided extensively by its short-term performance. So we can start by confirming that the company has actually done a good job of growing earnings over that time.

Shifting to the future, estimates from the four analysts covering the company suggest earnings growth is heading into negative territory, declining 21% over the next year. Meanwhile, the broader market is forecast to expand by 15%, which paints a poor picture.

With this information, we are not surprised that Guess? is trading at a P/E lower than the market. Nonetheless, there's no guarantee the P/E has reached a floor yet with earnings going in reverse. There's potential for the P/E to fall to even lower levels if the company doesn't improve its profitability.

The Key Takeaway

It's argued the price-to-earnings ratio is an inferior measure of value within certain industries, but it can be a powerful business sentiment indicator.

We've established that Guess? maintains its low P/E on the weakness of its forecast for sliding earnings, as expected. At this stage investors feel the potential for an improvement in earnings isn't great enough to justify a higher P/E ratio. It's hard to see the share price rising strongly in the near future under these circumstances.

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 2 warning signs for Guess? that you need to be mindful of.

Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking at a few good candidates. So take a peek at this free list of companies with a strong growth track record, trading on a low P/E.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.