Burlington Stores, Inc. (NYSE:BURL) Just Reported Yearly Earnings: Have Analysts Changed Their Mind On The Stock?

Shareholders might have noticed that Burlington Stores, Inc. (NYSE:BURL) filed its annual result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 3.7% to US$240 in the past week. The result was positive overall - although revenues of US$11b were in line with what the analysts predicted, Burlington Stores surprised by delivering a statutory profit of US$7.80 per share, modestly greater than expected. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Burlington Stores

Following the latest results, Burlington Stores' 16 analysts are now forecasting revenues of US$11.5b in 2026. This would be a solid 8.7% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to swell 13% to US$9.04. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of US$11.6b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$9.10 in 2026. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

The analysts reconfirmed their price target of US$336, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Burlington Stores at US$405 per share, while the most bearish prices it at US$293. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. The period to the end of 2026 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 8.7% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 10% annual growth over the past five years. Compare this with the broader industry, which analyst estimates (in aggregate) suggest will see revenues grow 5.0% annually. So it's pretty clear that Burlington Stores is forecast to grow substantially faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for Burlington Stores going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for Burlington Stores (of which 1 shouldn't be ignored!) you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.