Boxed, Inc. (NYSE:BOXD) Analysts Are Cutting Their Estimates: Here's What You Need To Know

The analysts might have been a bit too bullish on Boxed, Inc. (NYSE:BOXD), given that the company fell short of expectations when it released its second-quarter results last week. It definitely looks like a negative result overall with revenues falling 13% short of analyst estimates at US$44m. Statutory losses were US$0.47 per share, 25% bigger than what the analysts expected. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

See our latest analysis for Boxed

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Boxed's four analysts is for revenues of US$199.7m in 2022, which would reflect a notable 8.3% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. Losses are expected to increase slightly, to US$1.69 per share. Before this latest report, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$226.2m and US$1.63 per share in losses. So there's been quite a change-up of views after the recent consensus updates, withthe analysts making a serious cut to their revenue outlook while also expecting losses per share to increase.

The average price target fell 32% to US$7.00, implicitly signalling that lower earnings per share are a leading indicator for Boxed's valuation. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on Boxed, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$12.00 and the most bearish at US$6.00 per share. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. It's clear from the latest estimates that Boxed's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 17% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2022 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 10% over the past year. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 13% annually. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Boxed is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts increased their loss per share estimates for next year. Regrettably, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, but the latest forecasts still imply the business will grow faster than the wider industry. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have forecasts for Boxed going out to 2024, and you can see them free on our platform here.

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 4 warning signs for Boxed (of which 3 are potentially serious!) you should know about.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.