There's Reason For Concern Over Barnes & Noble Education, Inc.'s (NYSE:BNED) Massive 35% Price Jump

Barnes & Noble Education, Inc. (NYSE:BNED) shares have had a really impressive month, gaining 35% after a shaky period beforehand. Still, the 30-day jump doesn't change the fact that longer term shareholders have seen their stock decimated by the 90% share price drop in the last twelve months.

Although its price has surged higher, it's still not a stretch to say that Barnes & Noble Education's price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 0.3x right now seems quite "middle-of-the-road" compared to the Specialty Retail industry in the United States, where the median P/S ratio is around 0.4x. Although, it's not wise to simply ignore the P/S without explanation as investors may be disregarding a distinct opportunity or a costly mistake.

View our latest analysis for Barnes & Noble Education

What Does Barnes & Noble Education's P/S Mean For Shareholders?

For example, consider that Barnes & Noble Education's financial performance has been pretty ordinary lately as revenue growth is non-existent. One possibility is that the P/S is moderate because investors think this benign revenue growth rate might not be enough to outperform the broader industry in the near future. If you like the company, you'd be hoping this isn't the case so that you could potentially pick up some stock while it's not quite in favour.

We don't have analyst forecasts, but you can see how recent trends are setting up the company for the future by checking out our free report on Barnes & Noble Education's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

Do Revenue Forecasts Match The P/S Ratio?

There's an inherent assumption that a company should be matching the industry for P/S ratios like Barnes & Noble Education's to be considered reasonable.

Taking a look back first, we see that there was hardly any revenue growth to speak of for the company over the past year. The longer-term trend has been no better as the company has no revenue growth to show for over the last three years either. So it seems apparent to us that the company has struggled to grow revenue meaningfully over that time.

This is in contrast to the rest of the industry, which is expected to grow by 4.4% over the next year, materially higher than the company's recent medium-term annualised growth rates.

With this in mind, we find it intriguing that Barnes & Noble Education's P/S is comparable to that of its industry peers. It seems most investors are ignoring the fairly limited recent growth rates and are willing to pay up for exposure to the stock. They may be setting themselves up for future disappointment if the P/S falls to levels more in line with recent growth rates.

What We Can Learn From Barnes & Noble Education's P/S?

Barnes & Noble Education appears to be back in favour with a solid price jump bringing its P/S back in line with other companies in the industry Generally, our preference is to limit the use of the price-to-sales ratio to establishing what the market thinks about the overall health of a company.

Our examination of Barnes & Noble Education revealed its poor three-year revenue trends aren't resulting in a lower P/S as per our expectations, given they look worse than current industry outlook. When we see weak revenue with slower than industry growth, we suspect the share price is at risk of declining, bringing the P/S back in line with expectations. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve, it's hard to accept the current share price as fair value.

Before you take the next step, you should know about the 4 warning signs for Barnes & Noble Education (3 are potentially serious!) that we have uncovered.

If strong companies turning a profit tickle your fancy, then you'll want to check out this free list of interesting companies that trade on a low P/E (but have proven they can grow earnings).

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.