What financial metrics can indicate to us that a company is maturing or even in decline? Businesses in decline often have two underlying trends, firstly, a declining return on capital employed (ROCE) and a declining base of capital employed. This indicates to us that the business is not only shrinking the size of its net assets, but its returns are falling as well. On that note, looking into Monro (NASDAQ:MNRO), we weren't too upbeat about how things were going.
Understanding Return On Capital Employed (ROCE)
For those that aren't sure what ROCE is, it measures the amount of pre-tax profits a company can generate from the capital employed in its business. Analysts use this formula to calculate it for Monro:
Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)
0.036 = US$40m ÷ (US$1.6b - US$524m) (Based on the trailing twelve months to March 2025).
Therefore, Monro has an ROCE of 3.6%. Ultimately, that's a low return and it under-performs the Specialty Retail industry average of 13%.
See our latest analysis for Monro
In the above chart we have measured Monro's prior ROCE against its prior performance, but the future is arguably more important. If you'd like to see what analysts are forecasting going forward, you should check out our free analyst report for Monro .
So How Is Monro's ROCE Trending?
The trend of returns that Monro is generating are raising some concerns. The company used to generate 5.7% on its capital five years ago but it has since fallen noticeably. On top of that, the business is utilizing 38% less capital within its operations. The combination of lower ROCE and less capital employed can indicate that a business is likely to be facing some competitive headwinds or seeing an erosion to its moat. If these underlying trends continue, we wouldn't be too optimistic going forward.
While on the subject, we noticed that the ratio of current liabilities to total assets has risen to 32%, which has impacted the ROCE. If current liabilities hadn't increased as much as they did, the ROCE could actually be even lower. Keep an eye on this ratio, because the business could encounter some new risks if this metric gets too high.
What We Can Learn From Monro's ROCE
In summary, it's unfortunate that Monro is shrinking its capital base and also generating lower returns. Investors haven't taken kindly to these developments, since the stock has declined 66% from where it was five years ago. Unless there is a shift to a more positive trajectory in these metrics, we would look elsewhere.
One more thing to note, we've identified 2 warning signs with Monro and understanding them should be part of your investment process.
While Monro may not currently earn the highest returns, we've compiled a list of companies that currently earn more than 25% return on equity. Check out this free list here.
Valuation is complex, but we're here to simplify it.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.