LKQ (LKQ) Valuation: Fresh Guidance, Dividend Boost, and Buybacks Shape Investor Sentiment

LKQ (LKQ) has released its third-quarter and nine-month earnings, adjusted its 2025 outlook upward, and affirmed its quarterly dividend along with continued share repurchases. These moves are likely to shape how investors see the stock right now.

See our latest analysis for LKQ.

LKQ’s year-to-date share price return is down 16.2%, a reminder that momentum has faded compared to earlier years. The one-year total shareholder return is even lower at -20.4%. While recent buybacks, steady dividends, and board changes have made headlines, investors seem cautious and are waiting to see if modestly improved guidance leads to renewed optimism for shares in the future.

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With shares trading well below analyst price targets and recent earnings showing only modest improvement, investors are left to wonder if LKQ is currently undervalued or if the market is already factoring in all future growth potential.

Most Popular Narrative: 42.5% Undervalued

LKQ’s most-followed valuation narrative, according to julio, suggests the stock should trade far above its recent close of $30.37. This fair value perspective anchors its argument to long-term demand trends and automotive sector shifts that could reshape LKQ’s revenue path.

Growth in miles driven increases the wear and tear on vehicles, requiring more maintenance and repair work to keep them on the road, benefiting LKQ. LKQ’s collision business could see rising demand from increasing auto claims as more drivers return to the road following the COVID-19 pandemic.

Read the complete narrative.

Want to know which future trends and business pivots drive this bullish valuation? The narrative leans on growth expectations and assumptions that challenge today’s market sentiment. See how one shift could make all the difference in just a few years.

Result: Fair Value of $52.8 (UNDERVALUED)

Have a read of the narrative in full and understand what's behind the forecasts.

However, challenges such as advancements in ADAS technology and ongoing supply chain bottlenecks could quickly shift the outlook for LKQ’s growth narrative.

Find out about the key risks to this LKQ narrative.

Build Your Own LKQ Narrative

If you have a different take on LKQ or want to dive deeper into the numbers yourself, you can easily shape your own perspective in just a few minutes. Do it your way

A great starting point for your LKQ research is our analysis highlighting 4 key rewards and 1 important warning sign that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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